基于二维云模型和ALARP准则的风险评价法  

Risk Assessment Method Based on Two Dimensional Cloud Model and ALARP Criterion

作　　者：邢观华 Xing Guanhua(CCCC Highway Consultants Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 110000,China)

机构地区：[1]中交公路规划设计院有限公司,北京110000

出　　处：《特种结构》2024年第4期94-100,共7页Special Structures

摘　　要：风险具有广泛性和显著的不确定性,合理地评价风险可以有效规避事故损失。基于传统ALARP风险矩阵和二维云理论,提出一种风险量化评价方法。参考以“发生概率”和“危害性”为风险指标的五阶ALARP风险矩阵,统计四类风险等级对应的风险指标组合情况,分别建立风险等级的二维云模型。对某风险因素评级时,令专家参照评估标准,对风险指标进行多次独立评级,建立风险评估样本的云模型。利用Matlab基于评估样本云参数生成大量样本点,带入风险等级的正向云发生器中计算平均确定度,作为确定最终风险评级的依据。最后以斜拉索耐久性风险评价为例,结合工程实际病害情况,验证了方法的有效性和可操作性。The risks are widespread and significant ambiguity,which needs reasonable evaluationto avoid the accident loss.Based on the traditional ALARP risk matrix and two-dimensional cloud theory,a risk quantitative evaluation method was proposed.Based on the fifth-order ALARP risk matrix with"probability of occurrence"and"hazard"as risk indicators,the risk index combinations corresponding to the four risk levels were calculated,and the corresponding two-dimensional cloud models were established respectively.Experts,who refer to the assessment criteria of rating a risk factor,were invited to conduct multiple independent ratings of risk indicators,and the cloud model of risk assessment samples was established.Matlab was adopted to generate a large number of sample points based on the evaluation sample cloud parameters and to calculate the average certainty in the forward cloud generator,and then the basis for the final risk rating was obtained.Taking the risk assessment of stay cable durability as an example,the validity and operability of the proposed method were verified with the actual damage situation of the project.

关 键 词：云理论 风险评估 ALARP 准则 二维云模型 耐久性 

分 类 号：U448.27[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]