2018—2021年成都市青羊区空气污染对呼吸系统疾病门诊量影响的时间序列分析  

Impact of air pollution on outpatient visits for respiratory system diseases in Qingyang District,Chengdu City from 2018 to 2021:a time-series analysis

作　　者：邱玉蓉 胡燕[1] 陈秀岚[1] 高绪芳[2] 邓红梅 QIU Yu-rong;HU Yan;CHEN Xiu-lan;DENG Hong-mei;GAO Xu-fang(Qingyang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu Sichuan 610000,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]成都市青羊区疾病预防控制中心,四川成都610000 [2]成都市疾病预防控制中心 [3]达州市达川区疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《江苏预防医学》2024年第3期288-291,共4页Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：成都市空气污染健康风险评估研究(202360)。

摘　　要：目的了解成都市青羊区空气污染物对呼吸系统疾病门诊量的影响。方法收集2018—2021年成都市青羊区空气污染物(PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、NO_(2)、SO_(2)、CO、O3~8h)质量浓度和气象、医院呼吸系统疾病日门诊量资料。用Excel 2010和SPSS 25.0进行统计描述,在控制时间趋势、“星期几效应”“节假日效应”以及气象等混杂因素基础上,采用时间序列的广义相加模型,通过R 4.2.1对空气污染物和门诊量的关系进行时间序列分析。结果除O_(3~8 h)外各污染物质量浓度与呼吸系统疾病门诊量呈正相关。单污染物单日滞后模型显示:PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、NO_(2)浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),暴露当日门诊就诊超额风险最高(分别为0.491%、0.508%、1.735%),SO_(2)在暴露滞后第1天门诊就诊超额风险最高(5.508%),CO在暴露滞后第7天对门诊量影响效应最大(0.052%)。单污染物平均滞后模型显示:PM_(2.5)在平均滞后1天效应值最大(0.520%),PM_(10)、NO_(2)、SO_(2)、CO在平均滞后7天效应值最大(分别为0.680%、4.241%、15.092%、0.147%)。结论空气污染物PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、NO_(2)、SO_(2)、CO质量浓度升高,会使呼吸系统疾病门诊量增加,但最大效应值及其对应的滞后时间不同。Objective To examine the impact of air pollution on outpatient visits for respiratory system diseases in Qingyang District,Chengdu City.Methods The mass concentrations of air pollutants(PM_(2.5),PM_(10),NO_(2),SO_(2),CO and O_(3-8h)),meteorological data,daily outpatient visits for respiratory system diseases in hospitals were collected in Qingyang District,Chengdu City from 2018 to 2021,and descriptively analyzed using Excel 2010 and SPSS 25.0.After adjustment for the time trends,day-of-the-week effect,holiday effect and meteorological factors,a time-series analysis was performed to evaluate the association between air pollutants and outpatient visits using a generalized additive model with the software R 4.2.1.Results Except O_(3~8h),the mass concentrations of other air pollutants correlated positively with the outpatient visits for respiratory system diseases.Single-pollutant and single-day lag model analyses showed that an increase in the PM_(2.5),PM_(10)and NO_(2)concentrations by 10μg/m^(3)resulted in the greatest excess risk of outpatient visits on the day of exposure(0.491%,0.508%and 1.735%),and exposure to SO_(2)on one-day lag resulted in the greatest excess risk of outpatient visits(5.058%),while exposure to CO on 7-day lag resulted in the greatest excess risk of outpatient visits(0.052%).Single-pollutant average lag model analysis showed the greatest effect value(0.520%)for PM_(2.5)on one-day average lag,and for PM_(10)(0.680%),NO_(2)(4.241%),SO_(2)(15.092%)and CO(0.147%)on 7-day average lag,respectively.Conclusions An increase in the mass concentrations of PM_(2.5),PM_(10),NO_(2),SO_(2)and CO may increase outpatient visits for respiratory system diseases;however,the maximal effect values and corresponding lag time vary in air pollutants.

关 键 词：空气污染 呼吸系统疾病 门诊量 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R122.2[医药卫生—环境卫生学]