民族地区人口年龄结构与人口红利的变动研究——基于民族八省区的实证考察  

RESEARCH ABOUT CHANGES IN THE AGE STRUCTURE OF POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND IN ETHNIC AREAS:Based on Empirical Survey in Eight Ethnic Provinces and Regions

作　　者：姜春云 王力 Jiang Chunyun;Wang Li

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京100872

出　　处：《广西民族研究》2024年第2期166-177,共12页GUANGXI ETHNIC STUDIES

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“高质量发展视域下中国人口均衡发展的理论建构与多维测度研究”(20&ZD173)。

摘　　要：本文利用1990~2020年全国和民族地区各省区的人口普查资料数据,分析和预测民族地区人口年龄结构以及人口红利在1990~2035年期间的变动趋势和特征。研究发现,民族地区各省区人口年龄结构从1990年的成年型为主转变为2035年的老年型为主,但阶段性变动速度和深度存在明显差异,未来15年间内蒙古、广西和贵州的老化速度突出;民族地区各省区人口机会窗口的开启时间和持续时间不同,到2035年,贵州、广西、内蒙古和云南的人口机会窗口已关闭;民族地区人口红利整体上先增加后减少,且主要包括“持续时间长—经济贡献大”“持续时间长—经济贡献小”和“持续时间短—经济贡献短”3大类型。建议高度重视民族地区进入重度老龄化阶段的政策准备期,在推进人口现代化过程中重视人口质量的提升,把握未来的人口机会窗口和探索新型人口红利的可能性。Using the population census about ethnic areas and the whole country from 1990 to 2020,this article analyzes and predicts the trends and characteristics of changes in the age structure of population and demographic dividend in ethnic areas during the period 1990~2035.The study suggests that in the ethnic areas,the age structure of population has shifted from adult-oriented in 1990 to old-age-oriented in 2035.However,there are disparities in the pace and extent of these changes,and it is expected that Inner Mongolia,Yunnan,Guangxi and Guizhou will face notable aging acceleration in the next 15 years.Demographic window for provinces and regions in ethnic areas will open and close at different times and durations.By 2035,the demographic window will close in Guizhou,Guangxi,Inner Mongolia and Yunnan.Demographic dividend in ethnic areas generally increase at first and then decrease,which can primarily be classified into three types:“continuously strong”,“continuously weak”and“transiently weak”.It is advisable to carefully consider the policy preparation phase before ethnic regions reach a stage of significant aging.Additionally,attention should be given to improving population quality during the population modernization process.It is crucial to seize the future demographic window,and investigate the potential for new types of demographic dividend.

关 键 词：人口年龄结构 人口红利 人口机会窗口 民族地区 人口现代化 

分 类 号：C92[社会学—人口学]