基于改进D-S证据理论的管廊施工风险评估  

Risk Assessment of Utility Tunnel Construction based on Improved D-S Evidence Theory

作　　者：宛明晨 景月岭[1,2] 马乐乐 孙冉 葛俊彤 郑司元 WAN Ming-chen;JING Yue-ling;MA Le-le;SUN Ran;GE Jun-tong;ZHENG Si-yuan(School of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,合肥市230009 [2]清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京市100084

出　　处：《公路》2024年第8期274-280,共7页Highway

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目,项目编号51409074;清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室开放基金,项目编号sklhse-2020-D-04。

摘　　要：针对管廊施工所引发的安全问题,提出了基于云模型和改进的D-S证据理论相结合的多传感器信息融合的研究思路。充分考虑综合管廊施工在安全评估过程中的模糊性和随机性,构建安全评估多指标体系,借助云模型完成指标的基本概率赋值,针对多传感器信息融合时的证据冲突,引入马氏距离进行改进,并采用熵值法对不同种类监测项目进行权重分配,进而完成对各监测指标隶属度函数的融合,增强了融合结果的可靠性。将该风险评估方法应用于合肥某管廊施工实例,验证研究方法的有效性及可行性。结果表明,该段管廊施工整体安全评估的隶属度为m=[0.306 8,0.643 3,0.045 2,0,0,0.004 7],即该段管廊施工整体处于较低风险状态,与现场巡查结果一致,研究可为综合管廊施工过程中的多指标综合安全评估提供参考。In view of the construction safety problems caused by the utility tunnel construction,a research idea of multi-sensor information fusion based on cloud model and improved D-S evidence theory is proposed.Considering the fuzziness and randomness of the utility tunnel construction in the safety assessment process,a multi-index system for safety assessment is constructed.The basic probability assignment of each index is completed by means of the cloud model,and the Mahalanobis distance is introduced to improve the evidence conflict during multi-sensor information fusion.The entropy method is used to assign weights to different types of monitoring projects,and then the fusion of the membership functions of each monitoring index is completed,which enhances the reliability of fusion results.The risk assessment method is applied to the construction example of the utility tunnel to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the research method.The results show that the membership degree of the overall safety assessment of the construction of the utility tunnel is m=[0.306 8,0.643 3,0.045 2,0,0,0.004 7],indicating that the construction of the utility?tunnel is in a low risk state as a whole,which is consistent with the results of on-site inspection.The research can provide a feasible idea for the multi-index comprehensive safety assessment of the utility tunnel construction.

关 键 词：管廊施工安全 云模型 D-S证据理论 多源信息融合 

分 类 号：TU990.3[建筑科学—市政工程]