产业政策优化、地方经济竞争与官员的“理性选择”——基于地级市政府工作报告的实证分析  

Optimization of Industrial Policies,Competition of Local Economy,and"Rational Choice"of Officials:An Empirical Study Based on the Government Work Report of Prefecture-level Cities

作　　者：郑立晨 戴宏伟[1] 王佳宁 Zheng Lichen;Dai Hongwei;Wang Jianing(School of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 102206,China;Department of Media and Communication,City University of Hong Kong,Hongkong 999077,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,北京102206 [2]香港城市大学媒体与传播系,中国香港999077

出　　处：《财经研究》2024年第5期108-123,共16页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金重大项目(20ZDA31)。

摘　　要：产业政策在我国的产业发展中扮演了重要角色,且各地产业政策总体上呈现出适时变动的特征,地方调整产业政策的效果及政策选择动因值得进一步探讨。文章利用爬虫及文本分析工具整理出2008—2018年间254个地级市政府工作报告中的三位码扶持产业政策,区分了官员变动和政策变动后,使用工具变量对地方产业政策变动对经济增长的影响及原因进行实证分析。研究发现,地方产业政策的适时变动及动态优化能促进当地经济发展,并且这一结果非常稳健。进一步的分析表明,在“以经济建设为中心”的大背景下,地方政府官员会基于当地发展情况进行产业政策的动态调整及优化,表现为地方官员不断地进行新政策的试验,并不断废弃效果不佳的产业政策,做出所谓“理性选择”,经过筛选并得以保留的产业政策能够显著地提升相关行业的创新水平。地方产业政策变动及其背后的政府行为,发挥了类似于“优胜劣汰”的市场机制作用,并在客观上提升了产业政策效果,促进了当地经济发展。文章解释了地方政府调整产业政策这一行为背后的逻辑,有助于进一步理解“有为政府”及其实现路径。据此,文章认为地方政府应注重对本地产业发展实际情况的调研,建立科学的产业政策评估机制,并基于本地比较优势及时地调整产业政策,使地方经济发展更有竞争力。Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up,industrial policies have not only existed for a long time in the process of China's economic development,but also been constantly adjusted due to various reasons.In particular,the overall industrial policies around China have shown the characteristics of timely changes.In this characteristic fact,what kind of logical relationship exists between the change of industrial policies and economic growth?What are the effects of local governments'adjustment of industrial policies and the motivation of policy choices?These questions are worth further discussion.This paper uses crawler and text analysis tools to sort out the three-digit code supporting industrial policies in the government work reports of 254 prefecture-level cities from 2008 to 2018,and uses instrumental variables to empirically analyze the impact and causes of local industrial policy changes on economic growth.The study finds that the timely change and optimization of local industrial policies will promote the development of local economy.Further analysis shows that under the background of"taking economic construction as the center",local officials will conduct dynamic adjustment and optimization of industrial policies based on local development,which is manifested in that local officials continue to experiment with new policies,abandon ineffective industrial policies,and make the so-called"rational choice".The change of local industrial policies and the government behavior behind it play a role of market mechanism similar to"survival of the fittest",and objectively improve the effect of industrial policies and promote the development of local economy.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:First,it distinguishes between the change of officials and the change of policies,and finds that the change of local industrial policies presents the characteristic of"survival of the fittest"and promotes the development of local economy.Second,it reinterprets the logic behind local governments'adjustment of in

关 键 词：产业政策优化 地方经济竞争 官员理性选择 政府工作报告 

分 类 号：F420[经济管理—产业经济]