基于SPEI的陕西苹果产区近60a干旱变化特征  

Characteristics of Drought Changes in Shaanxi Apple Production Area over Last 60 Years Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

作　　者：张勇 黄俊芳 刘璐 张维敏[1,3] 屈振江 梁轶 ZHANG Yong;HUANG Junfang;LIU Lu;ZHANG Weimin;QU Zhenjiang;LIANG Yi(Shaanxi Meteorological Service Center of Agricultural Remote Sensing and Economic Crop,Xi'an 710016;Shaanxi Meteorological Training Center,Xi'an 710016;Key Laboratory of Eco-Environment and Meteorology for the Qinling Mountains and Loess Plateaue,Xi’an 710016)

机构地区：[1]陕西省农业遥感与经济作物气象服务中心,西安710016 [2]陕西省气象干部培训学院,西安710016 [3]陕西省气象局秦岭和黄土高原生态环境气象重点实验室,西安710016

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2024年第23期105-117,共13页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：陕西省气象局秦岭和黄土高原生态环境气象重点实验室开放研究基金(2023G-13);陕西省重点研发计划项目(2022NY-219);陕西省气象局科学技术研究项目“陕西苹果种植区干旱机制研究及应用”(2016Z-2)。

摘　　要：研究旨在明确气候变暖背景下陕西苹果产区的干旱变化特征,为陕西苹果产区适应气候变化,科学指导陕西苹果防旱减损提供参考。利用陕西省苹果产区近60 a的气象站月降水、气温资料,计算陕西苹果各产区年、生长季、各生育期的标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI,对其进行趋势、突变和周期变化分析。研究结果表明近60 a陕西苹果产区年际明显趋于干旱,生长季总体趋于干旱,突变点多集中在1970s和1990s,1990s后干旱趋势较为明显,其中渭北东部产区干旱趋势尤为显著、干旱风险持续增加;萌芽—幼果期干旱趋势十分明显,干旱风险持续增加,突变点多集中在1970s后期至1980s初期和1990s初期,1990s初期后干旱趋势较为明显,产区中渭北西部、渭北东部、关中的干旱趋势显著;着色—成熟期、越冬休眠期总体趋于干旱,突变点多集中在1970s,1970s中后期以来呈干旱趋势,各产区均存在干旱趋势但变化趋势不显著;果实膨大期则以波动变化为主,未有显著的变化趋势。基于SPEI的干旱分析结合了降雨和蒸散发、考虑了更长时间尺度、适用于不同气候区域,更能客观反映气候变暖背景下陕西苹果产区干旱情况。气候变化造成的降水偏少、气温升高是陕西苹果产区趋于干旱的主要影响因素。The aim of the research is to clarify the characteristics of drought changes in Shaanxi apple producing areas under the background of climate warming,and provide reference for Shaanxi apple production area to adapt to climate change and scientifically guide drought prevention and damage reduction.Using the monthly precipitation and temperature data from meteorological stations in apple-producing areas in Shaanxi Province over the past 60 years,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)for each growing season and stage in Shaanxi apple-producing areas was calculated,and its trend,abrupt change,and periodic variation were analyzed.The research results show that the annual precipitation in the apple producing areas of Shaanxi has been significantly decreasing over the past 60 years,with a general trend towards aridity during the growing season.The mutation points were mainly concentrated in the 1970s and 1990s,with a more pronounced arid trend after the 1990s.Among them,the eastern Weibei apple-producing area was particularly affected,with an increasing risk of aridity.The period from bud formation to early fruiting stage shows a clear arid trend and an increasing risk of aridity.The mutation points were mostly concentrated in the late 1970s to early 1980s and early 1990s.After the early 1990s,the arid trend had become more apparent,especially in the western and eastern Weibei and Guanzhong producing areas.The coloring-ripening period and winter dormancy period show an overall arid trend,with most mutation points concentrated in the 1970s.Since the mid-to-late 1970s,there had been an arid trend,but the change was not significant in all producing areas.The fruit enlargement period mainly fluctuated without a significant trend.The drought analysis based on SPEI combines rainfall and evapotranspiration,considers longer time scales,and is applicable to different climatic regions,providing a more objective reflection of drought conditions in the apple-producing areas of Shaanxi Province under the backg

关 键 词：陕西苹果 SPEI 分生育期 趋势 突变 周期 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]