海洋和陆地碳循环对二氧化碳正负排放响应的模拟研究  

Simulated response of the ocean and land carbon cycles to positive and negative CO_(2)emissions

作　　者：张靖宇 曹龙[1] ZHANG Jing-Yu;CAO Long(Department of Atmospheric Science,School of Earth Sciences,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学地球科学学院大气科学系,杭州310058

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2024年第4期416-427,共12页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42275179)。

摘　　要：人类活动导致大气浓度上升和全球变暖,威胁人类生存。CO_(2)移除作为一种可能的减缓全球变暖的手段,近年来受到了广泛关注。文中使用维多利亚大学地球系统模式(UVic ESCM),模拟分析在工业革命前平衡状态下(大气CO_(2)浓度285×10^(-6)),以不同强度脉冲形式施加的正负碳排放对碳循环的影响。模拟结果表明,在100 Pg C正脉冲排放情景下,脉冲排放后第100(1000)年,排放到大气中的CO_(2)有28%(18%)滞留在大气中,38%(61%)和34%(21%)分别被海洋和陆地吸收。在100 Pg C负脉冲排放情景下,海洋和陆地向大气释放CO_(2),从而减弱CO_(2)移除的效果。负排放后第100(1000)年,大气中减少的CO_(2)占初始CO_(2)移除量的23%(12%),其余36%(65%)和41%(23%)分别被海洋和陆地碳释放抵消。不同强度正负脉冲碳排放情景对比结果显示,正脉冲情景下累积空气分数始终高于同等强度负脉冲情景下累积去除分数,这说明正负脉冲碳排放情景下海陆碳循环的响应具有不对称性,要抵消正排放造成的大气CO_(2)浓度上升,需要进行更高强度的负排放。Human activities lead to increase in atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations and global warming,threatening human survival.As a potential method to mitigate global warming,CO_(2)removal has garnered extensive attention in recent years.We employed the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model(UVic ESCM)to simulate and analyze the effects of both positive and negative CO_(2)pulses of various intensity on the carbon cycle starting from preindustrial equilibrium(CO_(2)concentration:285×10-6).The results show that in the 100 Pg C positive CO_(2)pulse emission scenario,100(1000)years after imposing the CO_(2)pulse,only 28%(18%)of the CO_(2)emission remains in the atmosphere,the ocean absorbs about 38%(61%)of the CO_(2)emission,the land absorbs about 34%(21%)of the CO_(2)emission.In the 100 Pg C negative CO_(2)pulse emission scenario,the ocean and the land releases CO_(2)to the atmosphere,weakening the effect of CO_(2)removal.100(1000)years after imposing the CO_(2)pulse,only 23%(12%)of the initial CO_(2)removal from the atmosphere remains,with 36%(65%)offset by ocean carbon release,41%(23%)offset by land carbon release.According to different positive and negative pulse scenarios,the cumulative airborne fraction in the positive pulse scenario is always higher than cumulative removal fraction in the negative pulse scenario of the same intensity,which indicates that the positive and negative pulse carbon emission scenario responses of the sea and land carbon cycles are asymmetric.It means that negative emissions of higher intensities are needed to offset the atmospheric CO_(2)concentration increases caused by positive emissions.

关 键 词：气候变化 CO_(2)移除 碳循环 地球系统模拟 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]