贸易政策不确定性、企业出口和对外直接投资  

Trade Policy Uncertainty,Firms'Exports,and Outward Foreign Direct Investment

作　　者：舒莉 王韡 曹小勇 SHU Li;WANG Wei;CAO Xiaoyong

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2024年第8期123-139,共17页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“工业化后期二三产业协调发展机制研究:基于现代产业结构转型模型”(72173019);国家自然科学基金面上项目“参与约束、转售与最优拍卖设计”(72273023);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“新发展格局下产业结构转型升级拉动内需的机理研究:基于供需结构错配的视角”(21YJA790056);对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项“制造业与服务业协调发展的理论研究”(CXTD14-04)。

摘　　要：我国企业持续稳定的对外直接投资对于推动形成全面开放新格局具有重要意义。本文利用美国给予中国永久性正常贸易关系地位这一准自然实验,采用双重差分法以及工具变量法,研究贸易政策不确定性与我国企业对外直接投资的因果关系及其作用机制。研究发现:贸易政策不确定性下降显著促进了我国企业对外直接投资活动;机制研究表明,贸易政策不确定性下降通过促进我国企业出口,降低了企业在投资目的国营商环境等海外投资领域的信息壁垒,最终推动了我国企业对外直接投资;此外,对外直接投资之后,向投资目的国的最终品出口无显著变化,中间品出口由于海外生产需要而增加。以上结论为我国企业如何在贸易政策不确定性不断升级的国际经贸环境下采取精准有效的应对措施提供了政策参考。The sustainable and stable outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)un⁃dertaken by Chinese firms is of great importance in promoting a new paradigm of openness in China.This paper studies how the removal of trade policy uncertainty(TPU)affects Chinese firms'OFDI by leveraging a quasi⁃natural experiment in which the US granted per⁃manent normal trade relations(PNTR)status to China,and the application of the differ⁃ence⁃in⁃differences as well as instrumental variable method.We find that the decline in TPU significantly increases Chinese firms'OFDI.Mechanism analysis shows that the surge of exports resulted from the TPU reduction is a main driving force for the surge in Chinese firms'OFDI,by alleviating informational barriers faced by firms venturing into overseas markets.Finally,we find that following OFDI,there is no significant change in the exports of final products to the investment destination country,while exports of intermediate prod⁃ucts increase.Our empirical findings offer helpful policy insights for Chinese firms,guiding them in crafting precise and effective countermeasures amidst the continually esca⁃lating uncertainty in the global market stemming from trade policy fluctuations.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 对外直接投资 永久性正常贸易关系地位 因果推断 

分 类 号：F125.4[经济管理—世界经济]