“认房认贷”政策放松对房地产市场影响效应分析——基于住房交易挤出的视角  

Analysis of the Effect of the First-house-identification Policy on the Real Estate Market:From the Perspective of Housing Transaction Crowding Out

作　　者：黄河[1] 张红宇 梁尧 刘洪玉[1] HUANG He;ZHANG Hong-yu;LIANG Yao;LIU Hong-yu

机构地区：[1]清华大学建设管理系、房地产研究所

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2024年第9期115-128,共14页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“国有土地使用权挂牌出让的微观经济分析:价格形成与竞买人和政府行为”(项目编号:72274102)。

摘　　要：明晰需求端政策调控对二手房和新房市场的影响效应具有重要的现实意义。本文以“认房认贷”政策作为研究对象,运用时间断点回归模型,分析2022年部分二三线城市“认房认贷”政策放松对二手房和新房成交量价的影响以及两个子市场的联动规律,并进一步检验政策放松的空间挤出效应。研究发现,“认房认贷”政策放松显著增加了二手房的成交量,并减缓了二手房成交价格的下行趋势,但政策生效存在1~2个月的时滞。然而,二手房市场流动性增强挤出了新房市场的改善性住房需求,使得大户型新房成交量显著减少,并带来当期新房成交价格的下降。此外,高能级城市“认房认贷”政策的放松对周边低能级城市住房交易有较强的挤出效应,对小中大户型的新房交易均有持续显著的抑制效果。据此提出要因城施策引导刚性和改善性购房者分流。It is of great practical significance to clearly define the effect of demand-side policy regulation on the resale housing and new housing market.This paper uses the“first-house-identification”policy which categorize one s purchase as a second home as long as the household has a mortgage record or already owns a local property to analyze the impact of relaxing this policy on the volume and price of resale housing and new housing in some second and third-tier cities in 2022.The paper further interprets the interconnections between the two sub-markets,and test the spatial crowding out effect from policy relaxation.A regression discontinuity in time model is used for the analysis.The study found that the relaxation of the“first-house-identification”policy significantly increased the transaction volume of resale homes,and mitigated the downward trend of resale house prices.However,there is a lag of 1~2 months before the policy takes effect.Unfortunately,the increased liquidity in the resale market crowded out the demand for home upgrades in the new housing market.This significantly reduced transaction volumes in large new homes and led to a decline in transaction prices for new homes in the same period.Furthermore,the relaxation of the“first-house-identification”policy in economically advanced cities had a strong crowding out effect on the housing transactions in the surrounding economically underdeveloped cities,demonstrating a sustained and significant suppressive effect on transactions of small,medium and large units in the new housing market.Therefore,it is proposed to tailor policies for individual cities to guide buyers with non-discretionary demand and those seeking to upgrade their homes to choose different paths for home purchases.

关 键 词：“认房认贷”政策 住房价格 住房交易 挤出效应 时间断点回归模型 

分 类 号：F293.31[经济管理—国民经济] F293.33F293.35