基于GM(1,1)模型的青海省重点人群碘营养预测研究  

Prediction of iodine nutrition of key population in Qinghai Province based on GM(1,1)model

作　　者：王明君 陈勋[1] 沈洪婷[1] 张金梅 李亚楠[1] 甘培春[1] 周昕[1] 喇翠玲[1] 马静[1] 蒲光兰[1] 陈萍[1] 鲁青[1] 张强[1] WANG Mingjun;CHEN Xun;SHEN Hongting;ZHANG Jinmei;LI Yanan;GAN Peichun;ZHOU Xin;LA Cuiling;MA Jing;PU Guanglan;CHEN Ping;LU Qing;ZHANG Qiang(Qinghai Institute for Endemic Disease Control and Prevention,Xining,Qinghai 810000,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省地方病预防控制所,青海西宁810000

出　　处：《中国地方病防治》2024年第4期288-290,共3页Chinese Journal of Control of Endemic Diseases

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察项目(2019QZKK0607)。

摘　　要：目的通过建立GM(1,1)模型,预测青海省重点人群碘营养状况,为今后碘缺乏病防治工作提供参考。方法采用数学建模的方法,利用2017—2021年青海省人群碘营养状况评价数据资料,对人群碘营养状况指标构建GM(1,1)模型,并预测今后5年数据指标。结果8~10岁儿童尿碘中位数及孕妇盐碘中位数的小概率误差P值均为0.600,意味着模型精度不合格,后验差比C值分别为0.4794和0.3711,模型精度等级为二级;其余各项指标的小误差概率P值均为1.000,后验差比值C均<0.35,模型拟合精度为一级(好)。各项指标的GM(1,1)预测模型的平均相对误差分别为:8~10岁儿童盐碘中位数(0.0616%)、尿碘中位数(1.5594%),孕妇盐碘中位数(0.7146%)、尿碘中位数(3.0764%),各指标相对误差值均<0.1,表明各指标的模型拟合效果较好。预计到2026年,青海省8~10岁儿童盐碘中位数、尿碘中位数分别达到28.303 mg/kg、210.172μg/L;孕妇盐碘中位数、尿碘中位数分别达到27.329 mg/kg、295.343μg/L。结论青海省2022—2026年重点人群碘营养均呈增长趋势。通过建立灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型,可从理论上预测相关指标的升降及波动情况,从而及时出台相应措施,指导科学补碘。Objective To predict the iodine nutrition status of key population in Qinghai Province by establishing GM(1,1)model,so as to provide reference for iodine deficiency disorders prevention and control in Qinghai Province in the future.Methods A GM(1,1)model was established based on the evaluation data of population iodine nutrition in Qinghai Province from 2017 to 2021,and the data indexes in the next 5 years were predicted.Results The small probability error of the median urine iodine of 8-10-year-old children and the median salt iodine of pregnant women was 0.600,indicating that the accuracy of the model was unqualified,and the posterior difference ratio C was 0.4794 and 0.3711,respectively,indicating that the accuracy of the model was level 2.The small error probability P value of the other indicators was 1.000,the posterior difference ratio C was less than 0.35,and the model fitting accuracy was 1 level(good).The average relative errors of GM(1,1)prediction models were median salt iodine(0.0616%)and median urine iodine(1.5594%)of children aged 8-10,and median salt iodine(0.7146%)and urinary iodine(3.0764%)of pregnant women.The relative errors were all less than 0.1,indicating that the model fitting effect of each index was good.It is estimated that by 2026,the medians of salt iodine and urinary iodine of children agd 8-10 in Qinghai Province will reach 28.303 mg/kg and 210.172μg/L,respectively,and the medians of salt iodine and urine iodine of pregnant women will reach 27.329 mg/kg and 295.343μg/L,respectively.Conclusion Iodine nutrition of key population in Qinghai Province from 2022 to 2026 showed an increasing trend.By establishing the GM(1,1)model of grey system theory,the fluctuation of related indexes can be predicted theoretically,and corresponding measures can be taken in time to guide scientific iodine supplement.

关 键 词：碘营养 GM(1 1)模型 青海省 重点人群 预测 

分 类 号：R591.1[医药卫生—内科学]