基于云物元模型的拉萨道路交通安全评估  

Road traffic safety assessment in Lhasa based on cloud-matter-elementmodel

作　　者：陈雨飞 程刚[1] 章建荣 Chen Yufei;Cheng Gang;Zhang Jianrong(School of Technology,Xizang University,Lhasa 850000,China;Public Security Traffic Administration of Xizang Autonomous Region Public Security Department,Lhasa 850000,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏大学工学院,拉萨850000 [2]西藏自治区公安厅公安交通管理局,拉萨850000

出　　处：《西藏科技》2024年第8期59-66,80,共9页Xizang Science And Technology

基　　金：拉萨市科技计划项目(LSKJ202401)。

摘　　要：为全面科学评估拉萨市道路交通安全状况,量化拉萨市道路交通安全水平,提出基于博弈论-云物元模型的综合评价方法。首先,基于可测性、代表性、可比性三个特性并引入高原反应、紫外线强度指标构建面向拉萨市的道路交通安全评价指标体系;其次,基于AHP-EWM运用博弈论思想对指标进行综合权重分配;最后,引入云模型和物元理论对评价等级边界模糊化并计算各指标等级隶属度,提升评价结果的科学性和准确性。研究发现:拉萨市道路交通安全水平处于中等级,事故指标是提升拉萨市道路交通安全水平的主要阻力因子,拉萨市交通治理力度亟待加强。通过明确拉萨市道路交通安全发展现状与识别重点关注指标,因地制宜规划并制定提升拉萨市道路交通安全水平的管理措施,为拉萨市交通运输业的发展及道路交通安全水平的提高提供决策依据。In order to comprehensively and scientifically evaluate the road traffic safety status and quantify the road traffic safety level of Lhasa City,a comprehensive evaluation method based on game theory-cloud-matter-element model was proposed.Firstly,based on the three characteristics of measurability,representativeness and comparability,altitude sickness and ultraviolet intensity indicators were introduced to construct a road traffic safety evaluation index system for Lhasa.Secondly,based on AHP-EWM,the game theory idea is used to distribute the comprehensive weight of the index.Finally,the cloud model and matter-element theory are introduced to blur the boundary of the evaluation level and calculate the membership degree of each index level,so as to improve the scientificity and accuracy of the evaluation results.The results show that the road traffic safety level in Lhasa is at the middle level,and the accident index is the main obstacle factor to improve the road traffic safety level in Lhasa,and the traffic management in Lhasa needs to be strengthened urgently.By clarifying the current situation of road traffic safety development in Lhasa and identifying key indicators,the management measures to improve the road traffic safety level in Lhasa are planned and formulated according to local conditions,so as to provide a decision-making basis for the development of Lhasa’s transportation industry and the improvement of road traffic safety level.

关 键 词：交通工程 交通安全评价 云物元模型 道路交通 

分 类 号：U492.8[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]