冻害对山东省茶叶产量的影响评估  

Evaluation of the Impact of Freezing Damage on Tea Production in Shandong Province

作　　者：朱秀红 郑芳 田洪良 ZHU Xiuhong;ZHENG Fang;TIAN Hongliang(Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong,Ji'nan 250031,China;Wulian County Meteorological Bureau,Wulian 262300,China;Convenience Service Center in Xumeng Town,Wulian 262315,China;Wulian County Science and Technology Bureau,Wulian 262399,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,山东济南250031 [2]山东省五莲县气象局,山东五莲262300 [3]山东省五莲县许孟镇便民服务中心,山东五莲262315 [4]五莲县科学技术局,山东五莲262399

出　　处：《中国茶叶》2024年第9期41-45,共5页China Tea

基　　金：山东省气象局2024年度气象软科学重点项目(202402)。

摘　　要：为科学评估山东省茶树冻害影响情况,将山东省茶树冻害分为越冬期和春茶期冻害两类,分别找出影响两类冻害发生的主要气象因子,通过多元线性回归分别建立了山东省茶树越冬期和春茶期冻害减产预测模型。经验证,所得预测模型准确率较高,可以用来指导茶农科学防冻,提高茶叶产量和品质,推动山东省茶产业高质量发展。In order to scientifically evaluate the impact freezing damage on tea plants in Shandong,the freezing dam-age to tea plants was divided into two categories:overwintering period and spring tea period.The main meteorologi-cal factors affecting the occurrence of the two types of freezing damage in Shandong were identified,and multiple lin-ear regression was performed to establish prediction models for the reduction rate of freezing damage during the over-wintering and spring tea periods in Shandong.The accuracy of the prediction models was verified to be high.The re-sults indicate that forecasting models and influencing factors can be used to guide tea farmers to scientifically pre-vent freezing,improve tea yield and quality,and promote the high-quality development of Shandong's tea industry.

关 键 词：冻害 春茶 减产率 产量模型 影响评估 

分 类 号：S571.1[农业科学—茶叶生产加工] S425[农业科学—作物学]