耦合PLUS-InVEST-Geodector模型的新疆地区碳储量时空变化及驱动机制分析  

Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Carbon Stock Changes and Driving Mechanism in Xinjiang Region by Coupled PLUS-InVEST-Geodector Model

作　　者：傅楷翔 贾国栋[1,2,3] 余新晓[1,3] 陈立欣[1,3] FU Kai-xiang;JIA Guo-dong;YU Xin-xiao;CHEN Li-xin(School of Soil and Water Conservation,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;State Key Laboratory of Efficient Production of Forest Resources,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Soil and Water Conservation,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京100083 [2]北京林业大学林木资源高效生产全国重点实验室,北京100083 [3]北京林业大学水土保持国家林业和草原局重点实验室,北京100083

出　　处：《环境科学》2024年第9期5416-5430,共15页Environmental Science

基　　金：科技部第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk1200)。

摘　　要：基于“双碳”战略目标下探明新疆土地利用变化对碳储量的影响及碳储量空间分异驱动因素并预测不同情景下的新疆2035年土地利用类型,分析其对碳储量的影响,对新疆政策制定、土地利用结构调整和碳中和目标实现具有重要的理论与现实意义.耦合PLUS-InVEST-Geodector模型,探究新疆2035年快速发展、自然变化、耕地保护和生态保护情景下碳储量时空变化规律,并从土地利用变化以及自然-社会经济-可达性组合角度定量揭示影响碳储量变化归因.结果表明:①1990~2020年新疆耕地和建设用地面积增加,从转移方向上看,主要由未利用地转为草地.②时间尺度上,新疆碳储量表现为“减少-增加-减少”的波动状态,总体呈增加趋势,未利用地转移至草地是其碳储量增加的主要原因;空间尺度上,北部阿尔泰山、中部天山和南部昆仑山系碳储量较高,塔里木盆地和准噶尔盆地碳储量较低.③2035年自然发展和快速发展情景碳储量较2020年减少27.24 Tg和71.17 Tg;生态保护和耕地保护情景增加492.55 Tg和46.67 Tg,生态保护情景较其他情景能显著提升新疆地区碳储量,4种情景碳储量分布格局与2020年大致相同.④除地类转化外,土壤侵蚀强度是新疆碳储量空间分异的主要驱动因子(q值为0.3501),其次是植被净初级生产力;多因子交互结果显示,新疆碳储量空间分异是多重因素共同作用的结果,所有因子在交互作用下均有协同增强的作用,土壤侵蚀强度和植被净初级生产力交互作用是新疆碳储量空间分异的主要交互驱动因子.Based on the goal of“dual-carbon”strategy,it is important to explore the impacts of land use change on carbon stock and the drivers of spatial differentiation of carbon stock in Xinjiang.Here,we predicted the land use types in Xinjiang in 2035 under different scenarios and analyzed the impacts of land use on carbon stock,which is of great theoretical and practical importance for policy formulation,land use structure adjustment,and carbon neutrality target achievement in Xinjiang.The coupled PLUS-InVESTGeodector model was used to explore the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon stock change under the scenarios of rapid development,natural change,arable land protection,and ecological protection in Xinjiang in 2035 and to quantitatively reveal the attribution of influences on the changes in carbon stock from the perspectives of land use change and the combination of nature-socioeconomic-accessibility.The results showed that:①From 1990 to 2020,the area of arable land and construction land in Xinjiang increased,and in terms of the transfer direction,it was mainly shifted from unutilized land to grassland.②On the time scale,the carbon stock in Xinjiang showed the fluctuation of“decrease-increasedecrease,”with an overall increasing trend.The transfer of unutilized land to grassland was the main reason for the increase in carbon stock;on the spatial scale,the carbon stock in the Altai Mountains in the north,the Tianshan Mountains in the middle,and the Kunlun Mountains in the south was higher,whereas the carbon stock in the Tarim Basin and the Junggar Basin was lower.③In 2035,the carbon stock of the natural development and rapid development scenarios decreased by 27.24 Tg and 71.17 Tg compared with 2020,respectively,and the ecological protection and arable land protection scenarios increased by 492.55 Tg and 46.67 Tg.The ecological protection scenario could significantly increase the carbon stock of the Xinjiang Region compared with that in the other scenarios,and the distribution pattern of the carbon st

关 键 词：碳储量 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 地理探测器 新疆 

分 类 号：X144[环境科学与工程—环境科学]