基于实物期权模型的眼科制药企业价值评估  

Value Assessment of Ophthalmic Pharmaceutical Enterprises Based on Real Option Model

作　　者：安然 李琼 AN Ran;LI Qiong(School of Economics and Management,Guangxi University of Science and Technology,Liuzhou 545006,China)

机构地区：[1]广西科技大学经济与管理学院,广西柳州545006

出　　处：《商业观察》2024年第24期21-25,共5页BUSINESS OBSERVATION

摘　　要：随着老龄化进程的加快、电子设备的普及,眼科药物市场需求不断扩大,行业内投资、并购等企业活动频繁。而眼科制药企业正处于药物研发高峰期,资金投入巨大,若使用传统方法进行估值很可能低估企业真实价值。文章深入分析眼科制药行业发展现状及企业特征,将企业价值划分为现有价值和潜在价值两部分进行分别评估。采用EVA模型计算企业现有价值,其中:运用灰色预测模型改进企业未来期EVA预测部分,采用实物期权模型计算企业潜在价值,最终通过相关案例证明该组合模型对于眼科制药企业价值评估的较高适用性。With the acceleration of the aging process and the popularity of electronic devices,the market demand for ophthalmic drugs continues to expand,and corporate activities in the industry are frequent such as investment,mergers and acquisitions.Ophthalmic pharmaceutical companies are at the peak of drug research and development,with huge capital investment,so the traditional method of valuation is likely to underestimate the true value of enterprises.This paper deeply analyzes the development status and enterprise characteristics of the ophthalmic pharmaceutical industry,and divides the enterprise value into existing value and potential value for separate evaluation.EVA model is used to calculate the existing value of the enterprise,and the paper uses grey prediction model to improve future EVA prediction part of the enterprise.The real option model is used to calculate the potential value of the enterprise.Finally,through related cases,the high applicability of the combined model for the valuation of ophthalmic pharmaceutical companies is proved.

关 键 词：实物期权法 EVA模型 灰色预测模型 眼科制药企业 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]