计及子过程贡献度的电压暂降经济损失评估方法  

Economic loss assessment method for voltage sag considering contribution of subprocesses

作　　者：徐方维[1] 陈家乐 郭凯 周文 王川 周全 卢煜国 XU Fangwei;CHEN Jiale;GUO Kai;ZHOU Wen;WANG Chuan;ZHOU Quan;LU Yuguo(College of Electrical Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;State Grid Hebei Electric Power Research Institute,Shijiazhuang 050021,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学电气工程学院,四川成都610065 [2]国网河北省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2024年第9期197-204,共8页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52277113);四川省自然科学基金资助项目(2023NSFSC0299)。

摘　　要：现有电压暂降经济损失评估方法一般通过计算过程中断概率评估用户经济损失,然而实际工业用户各子过程对电压暂降经济损失影响程度不同,计算过程中断概率未能表征各子过程对电压暂降经济损失的影响程度,由此得到的损失评估值无法真实反映用户受损程度。为此,提出一种计及子过程贡献度的电压暂降经济损失评估方法:构建基于支持向量机概率输出的敏感设备失效概率评估模型;建立考虑子过程参数变化的参数偏移度函数,修正子过程中断概率;同时,提出子过程贡献度指标量化各子过程对电压暂降经济损失的影响程度,以评估值与损失样本偏差最小为目标求解最优子过程贡献度,建立用户损失评估模型。对某企业的实例分析验证了所提方法的有效性。The existing methods for evaluating the economic loss of voltage sag usually calculate the process interruption probability to assess the user’s economic loss.However,the actual industrial user’s subprocesses have different degrees of impact on the voltage sag economic loss.The calculated process interruption probability fails to represent the degree of impact of each subprocess on the voltage sag economic loss,and the obtained loss assessment value cannot truly reflect the user’s damage degree.Therefore,an economic loss assessment method of voltage sag taking into account the contribution of subprocesses is proposed.The failure probability evaluation model of sensitive equipment based on probability output of support vector machine is constructed.The parameter offset function considering the variation of subprocess parameters is established to modify the subprocess interruption probability.At the same time,the subprocess contribution index is proposed to quantify the impact of each subprocess on the voltage sag economic loss,the optimal sub-process contribution is calculated with the objective of minimizing the deviation between the evaluation value and the loss sample,and the user loss assessment model is established.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by an example of an enterprise.

关 键 词：电压暂降 经济损失 概率输出 支持向量机 过程参数 子过程贡献度 

分 类 号：TM761[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]