集中供地政策对稳地价的影响  

The Impact of Centralized Land Supply Policy on Stabilizing Land Prices

作　　者：卢建新[1] 雒怡凡 黄庭轩 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院,430073 [2]西安欧亚学院,710065 [3]伯明翰大学工程与物理科学院,B152TT

出　　处：《中国房地产金融》2024年第4期33-44,共12页China Real Estate Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目,“集中供地政策对房地产市场的冲击、传导机制及其经济后果”(72374220)。

摘　　要：本文将集中供地政策的实施视为一项准自然实验,基于2021年3月以来土地微观交易数据,运用固定效应模型和倾向得分匹配法分析该政策实施对地价溢价率的影响及其传导机制。研究表明:集中供地政策在一定程度上降低了试点城市的地价溢价率,平均大约降低了2%,属于逆房地产周期的调控政策;集中供地政策通过房地产企业预期来影响地价溢价率;在时间效应上,实施集中供地政策后的两个月内稳地价效果显著;在空间效应上,实施集中供地政策地块的稳地价效应对比周边100~375km范围内显著有效;从城市规模上看,二线城市的政策效果强于一线城市,各城市土地竞拍的热度分化加剧,核心一、二线城市土地市场热度较高,冷门城市的政策效果强于热门城市。据此提出,集中供地政策具有降低地价溢价率的功能,是逆房地产周期的调控政策,应择机使用。Based on micro land transaction data since March 2021,this paper regards the implementation of the centralized land supply policy as a quasi-natural experiment,and uses a fixed effects model and propensity score matching method to analyze the impact of the policy implementation on the land price premium rate and its transmission mechanism.The results indicate that:(1)The centralized land supply policy reduced the land price premium in the pilot cities to a certain extent,by about 2 percent on average,and is a counter-cyclical property control policy.(2)The centralized land supply policy affects the land price premium rate through real estate firms'expectations.(3)In terms of time effect,the land price stabilization effect is significant within two months after the implementation of the centralized land supply policy;in terms of spatial effect,the land price stabilization effect of the land parcels with the implementation of the centralized land supply policy is significantly more effective than that of the surrounding area within the range of 100~375km.(4)In terms of city scale,the policy effect in second-tier cities is stronger than that in first-tier cities.The heat of land bidding in various cities has diverged.The land market in core first and second-tier cities is hotter,and the policy effect in unpopular cities is stronger than that in popular cities.In conclusion,the centralized land supply policy,which has the function of reducing the premium rate of land prices,is a regulatory policy that goes against the real estate cycle and should be used opportunistically.

关 键 词：集中供地政策 稳地价 市场预期 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]