碳排放权交易对企业违约风险的影响及作用机制  

The impact and mechanism of carbon emission trading on corporate default risk

作　　者：李楠 张璐 刘钻扩 LI Nan;ZHANG Lu;LIU Zuankuo(School of Business,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学商学院,济南250014

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2024年第8期2475-2492,共18页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72003110);山东省自然科学基金(ZR2020MG042,ZR2023MG042)。

摘　　要：近年来国内外各种不确定因素增多,企业债务问题频出,违约风险不容忽视.在低碳绿色发展背景下,碳排放权交易政策是我国实现“双碳”目标的重要环境规制,在激励企业碳减排的同时,是否对企业违约风险产生影响?本文基于我国碳排放权交易试点的准自然实验,使用2010–2020年试点地区上市公司数据,通过双重差分法、三重差分法研究碳交易政策对企业违约风险的影响.研究发现,碳交易政策显著降低了试点企业特别是高污染企业的违约风险.在进行一系列稳健性检验后,结论仍然成立.机制研究表明,碳交易政策可以通过促进绿色创新、加强环境信息披露和缓解融资约束三条路径降低违约风险.异质性分析表明,试点政策在地方政府环境治理力度较强以及公众环境关注程度较高的地区,对企业违约风险的缓解作用更显著.本文拓宽了环境风险与违约风险关系的相关研究,丰富了碳金融市场微观层面效果的经验证据,同时也为企业绿色转型中的金融风险防控提供了有益启示.In recent years,with the increase of various uncertainties at home and abroad,corporate debt problems occur frequently and the risk of default cannot be ignored.Under the background of low-carbon and green development,the carbon emission trading(CET)system is an important environmental regulation set up in China for realizing carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.While encouraging corporates to reduce carbon emissions,does it affect their default risk?Based on a quasi-natural experiment of China’s CET system,using the data of listed companies in the pilot area from 2010 to 2020,this paper studies the impact of CET on corporate default risk through the difference-in-differences model(DID)and difference-indifference-in-differences model(DDD).This research finds that CET significantly reduces the default risk of the pilot corporates,especially high-polluting corporates.After a series of robustness tests,the conclusion is still valid.Mechanism research shows that CET reduces the default risk by increasing green innovation,strengthening environmental information disclosure and easing financing constraints.Heterogeneity analysis shows that pilot policies have a more significant mitigation effect on enterprise default risk in areas where local environmental governance is stronger and public environmental concern is higher.This paper broadens the research on the relationship between environmental risk and default risk,enriches the empirical evidence on the effect of the carbon finance market at the micro level,and also provides beneficial enlightenment for the prevention and control of financial risks in the green transformation of enterprises.

关 键 词：碳排放权交易 违约风险 绿色创新 环境信息披露 融资约束 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理] F062.1[经济管理—国民经济]