基于决策树模型的玉屏风胶囊治疗慢性阻塞性肺疾病稳定期的药物经济学评价  

Pharmacoeconomic Evaluation of Yupingfeng Capsules for the Treatment of Stable Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease based on Decision Tree Model

作　　者：王福平 崔鑫 谢雁鸣[1] WANG Fu-Ping;CUI Xin;XIE Yan-Ming(Institute of Basic Medicine in Traditional Chinese Medicine,China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences,Beijing 100700,China)

机构地区：[1]中国中医科学院中医临床基础医学研究所,北京100700

出　　处：《中国药物经济学》2024年第8期18-22,29,共6页China Journal of Pharmaceutical Economics

摘　　要：目的基于决策树模型评价玉屏风胶囊治疗慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)稳定期的成本-效果。方法从医疗卫生体系角度出发,采用TreeAge Pro 2018.2.1软件构建决策树模型,模拟玉屏风胶囊联合西医常规疗法相比于西医常规疗法治疗COPD的总成本和临床产出,并进行增量分析和敏感性分析。其中成本数据来源于相关价格网站,疗效数据来源于Meta分析。结果与对照组比较,玉屏风胶囊组的增量成本和增量效果分别为1069.2元和1.3次,增量成本-效果比(ICER)为822.46元,也就是说,用玉屏风胶囊联合西医常规疗法治疗COPD稳定期患者,每少发生1次急性加重次数,要多支出822.46元。以2020年人均可支配收入(32189元,国家统计局)作为基础分析的参考标准,ICER占人均可支配收入的2.56%。因此,在假设2020年人均可支配收入是患者的意愿支付阈值的情况下,玉屏风胶囊联合常规疗法比单用常规疗法更经济。敏感性分析结果表明基础分析结果较稳健。结论玉屏风胶囊联合西医常规疗法较单用西医常规疗法在减少急性加重次数方面的经济性更优。Objective To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Yupingfeng Capsules for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)patients based on decision tree model.Methods From the perspective of healthcare system,TreeAge Pro 2018.2.1 software was used to build a decision tree model to simulate the total cost and clinical output of Yupingfeng capsule combined with conventional western medicine therapy in the treatment of COPD compared with conventional Western medicine therapy,and incremental analysis and sensitivity analysis were conducted.The cost data came from relevant price websites,and the efficacy data came from meta-analysis.Results Compared with the control group,the incremental cost and incremental effect of Yupingfeng capsule group were 1069.2 yuan and 1.3 times,respectively,and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio(ICER)was 822.46 yuan.In other words,when Yupingfeng capsule combined with conventional western medicine was used to treat COPD patients in stable stage,it would cost 822.46 yuan more for each less acute exacerbation.Taking per capita disposable income in 2020(RMB 32189,National Bureau of Statistics)as the reference standard for basic analysis,ICER accounts for 2.56%of per capita disposable income.Therefore,under the assumption that the per capita disposable income in 2020 is the patient's willingness to pay threshold,Yupingfeng capsule combined with conventional therapy is more economical than conventional therapy alone.The results of sensitivity analysis show that the results of basic analysis are more robus.Conclusion Yupingfeng capsule combined with conventional western medicine therapy is more economical than conventional Western medicine therapy alone in reducing the numberofacuteexacerbations.

关 键 词：决策树模型 上市后再评价 玉屏风胶囊 慢性阻塞性肺疾病 药物经济学 

分 类 号：R563.3[医药卫生—呼吸系统] R956[医药卫生—内科学]