中国企业生存分析:来自工商登记数据的证据  

Survival Analysis of Chinese Firms:Evidence from Business Registration Data

作　　者：谢畅 张钟文 李德洗 Xie Chang;Zhang Zhongwen;Li Dexi(School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University;School of Applied Economics,Renmin University of China;China Data Research Institute,Guangdong University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院 [2]中国人民大学应用经济学院 [3]广东财经大学中国数据研究院

出　　处：《调研世界》2024年第9期41-52,共12页The World of Survey and Research

基　　金：国家统计局重大统计专项“企业生命周期研究”(2019ZX08);国家社科基金重大项目“大国竞争背景下关键领域产业链供应链重构的风险评估与对策研究”(23&ZD046)的资助。

摘　　要：中国企业的生存状况不仅关乎其自身的可持续发展,更对国家的经济稳定和增长具有深远影响。现有研究缺少对中国企业生存情况的全域画像。本文基于工商登记数据测度了改革开放以来中国企业生存状况的演变和异质性,建立Cox比例风险模型分析了企业从事科技创新的行为和成果对企业风险率的影响。研究表明:中国企业寿命呈现出先下降后上升的趋势,亚洲金融危机、加入WTO和全球金融危机是企业生存的关键性转折点。企业寿命的两极分化现象逐渐加剧,竞争性行业寿命更短,垄断性行业寿命更长,营商环境较好的地区企业寿命相对较长,注册资本更高的企业风险率更低。制造业企业从事高技术行业的风险率高于一般行业,但是获得专利或发明专利可以降低企业风险率。批发和零售业、生产性服务业企业获得专利同样能改善企业的生存情况。本文从多个维度刻画了中国企业生存发展的基本规律,为理解企业进入和消亡的内在机制提供参考。The survival of Chinese firms is not only crucial for their own sustainable development,but also has a profound impact on the country’s economic stability and growth.Current research lacks a comprehensive portrayal of the survival status of Chinese firms.This paper measures the evolution and heterogeneity of the survival status of Chinese firms since the reform and opening-up policy based on business registration data.We analyze the impact of the engagement and achievement in scientific and technological innovations on the hazard rate of firms based on Cox proportional hazards model.The research findings are as follows:(1)The lifespan of Chinese firms initially declines followed by a rise.Asian financial crisis,WTO accession and the global financial crisis are the key turning points of firms’survival.(2)The polarization of firm lifespans intensifies,with shorter lifespan in competitive industries,longer lifespan in monopolistic industries,relatively longer lifespan in areas with better business environment,and lower hazard rate of firms with higher registered capital.(3)The hazard rate of manufacturing firms engaged in high-tech industries is higher than that of general industries.However,obtaining patents or invention patents can reduce the hazard rate.(4)Obtaining patents by firms in wholesale,retail and production service industries can also improve their survival rate.This paper portrays the facts of survival and development of Chinese firms from multiple dimensions,providing a reference for understanding the mechanism of firm entry and exit.

关 键 词：企业寿命 生存分析 COX比例风险模型 技术创新 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]