针对大范围降温天气的气温预报检验方法  

Temperature Forecast Verification Methods for Large-scale Temperature-drop Days

作　　者：唐延婧 陈蕾 杜正静 尚媛媛 宋丹 TANG Yanjing;CHEN Lei;DU Zhengjing;SHANG Yuanyuan;SONG Dan(Guizhou Meteorological Service,Guiyang 550002,China;Guizhou Institute of Mountainous Meteorological Sciences,Guiyang 550081,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省气象服务中心,贵州贵阳550002 [2]贵州省山地气象科学研究所,贵州贵阳550081

出　　处：《山地气象学报》2024年第4期1-9,共9页Journal of Mountain Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J071):低纬山区心脑血管疾病气象预报技术研究与应用;贵州省气象局科研业务项目(黔气科登〔2021〕05-03号):黔中山地小气候空气污染气象条件预报技术研究。

摘　　要：【目的】为客观评价大范围降温天气中的气温预报效果。【方法】以传统检验方法为基础,借鉴面向对象的检验方法,构建了以降温范围和中心强度偏差、日气温大误差率为主的降温预报综合检验指标。以2020年6月1日—2021年5月31日期间中国大范围降温日为样本,对ECMWF、NCEP客观模式1~7 d时效的气温预报开展检验。【结果】临近时段各预报场预报的降温日都较可靠,但漏报较多;降温预报偏差综合指数揭示在降温空间分布上,各预报场有降温范围偏小或降温中心偏离的缺陷,ECMWF的降温预报效果优势明显,而NCEP预报效果欠佳,主要因NCEP气温预报偏差大,但其对降温形态的预报具有参考性。对降温预报检验方法开展讨论,发现引入气温变化后的降温预报偏差综合指数结果与传统检验有差异,因此针对降温天气开展检验是有必要的;通过各降温过程比较和典型个例讨论,降温预报综合检验各项指标具有检验意义,所构建的降温预报偏差综合指数能够客观反映大范围降温日的气温、降温预报性能,可用于开展各降温日、各预报的比较。【结论】降温预报时间检验和降温预报综合检验分别关注大范围降温天气下降温预报在时间和空间上的偏差,可拓展应用到不同区域范围。In order to objectively verify temperature forecast of largescale temperaturedrop days,this paper constructs a verification method focusing on temperaturedrop.Based on traditional verification method and objectoriented verification method,the temperaturedrop deviation composite index is constructed,which mainly includes the temperaturedrop range,central intensity deviation and the large daily temperature error rate.Taking largescale temperaturedrop days in China from June 1,2020 to May 31,2021 as samples,we test the 1~7 d temperature forecasts of ECMWF and NCEP objective models.The results show that the forecasted temperaturedrop days are reliable,especially in 1~3 d forecast periods,but all forecasts tend to miss some temperaturedrop days.The temperaturedrop deviation composite index denotes that all forecast fields reflect the defects of smaller range or deviation of cooling center in the spatial distribution of temperature drop.The ECMWF model forecast outperforms that of the NCEP model,primarily because the NCEP forecast has a larger deviation in temperature drop,but its temperaturedrop distribution is referable.The verification result of temperaturedrop deviation composite index differs from the traditional verification.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out temperaturedrop verification.Based on the comparison of various temperaturedrop processes and the discussion of typical cases,the constructed temperaturedrop deviation composite index provides an objective description of temperature and temperaturedrop forecast performance of a wide range of temperaturedrop days,and can be used to compare temperaturedrop days and forecast fields.In addition,the temporal traditional verification,and spatial composite verification can be adjust to fit the deviation of temperature drop forecast in time and space under a wide range of temperature drop weather,and can be extended to different regional ranges.

关 键 词：降温 气温预报 检验 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]