Establishment and evaluation of prediction model of recurrence after laparoscopic choledocholithotomy  

作　　者：Ying-Jie Wu 

机构地区：[1]Department of Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery,The First Affiliated Hospital of Ningbo University,Ningbo 315000,Zhejiang Province,China

出　　处：《World Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery》2024年第9期2823-2828,共6页世界胃肠外科杂志（英文版）（电子版）

摘　　要：BACKGROUND Choledocholithiasis is a common clinical bile duct disease,laparoscopic choledocholithotomy is the main clinical treatment method for choledocho-lithiasis.However,the recurrence of postoperative stones is a big challenge for patients and doctors.AIM To explore the related risk factors of gallstone recurrence after laparoscopic choledocholithotomy,establish and evaluate a clinical prediction model.METHODS A total of 254 patients who underwent laparoscopic choledocholithotomy in the First Affiliated Hospital of Ningbo University from December 2017 to December 2020 were selected as the research subjects.Clinical data of the patients were collected,and the recurrence of gallstones was recorded based on the postope-rative follow-up.The results were analyzed and a clinical prediction model was established.RESULTS Postoperative stone recurrence rate was 10.23%(26 patients).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that cholangitis,the diameter of the common bile duct,the diameter of the stone,number of stones,lithotripsy,preoperative total bilirubin,and T tube were risk factors associated with postoperative recurrence(P<0.05).The clinical prediction model was ln(p/1-p)=-6.853+1.347×cholangitis+1.535×choledochal diameter+2.176×stone diameter+1.784×stone number+2.242×lithotripsy+0.021×preoperative total bilirubin+2.185×T tube.CONCLUSION Cholangitis,the diameter of the common bile duct,the diameter of the stone,number of stones,lithotripsy,preoperative total bilirubin,and T tube are the associated risk factors for postoperative recurrence of gallstone.The prediction model in this study has a good prediction effect,which has a certain reference value for recurrence of gallstone after laparoscopic choledocholi-thotomy.

关 键 词：CHOLEDOCHOLITHIASIS Laparoscopic choledocholithotomy RECURRENCE Risk factors Clinical prediction model 

分 类 号：R735[医药卫生—肿瘤]