多情景下喀斯特山区土地利用对碳储量的影响  

Impact of Land Use on Carbon Storage in Karst Mountainous Areas Under Multiple Scenarios

作　　者：周玉琴 赵筱青[1] 冉玉菊 徐逸飞 普军伟 叶显民 汪小宝 王越男 瞿国寻[4] ZHOU Yuqin;ZHAO Xiaoqing;RAN Yuju;XU Yifei;PU Junwei;YE Xianmin;WANG Xiaobao;WANG Yuenan;QU Guoxun(College of Earth Science,Yunnan University,Kunming 650500,China;Institute of International Rivers and Eco-security,Yunnan University,Kunming 650500,China;Southwest United Graduate School,Kunming 650092,China;Yunnan Institute of Land Resources Planning and Design,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学地球科学学院,云南昆明650500 [2]云南大学国际河流与生态安全研究院,云南昆明650500 [3]西南联合研究生院,云南昆明650092 [4]云南省国土资源规划设计研究院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2024年第8期205-216,共12页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：云南省西南联合研究生院科技专项-基础研究和应用基础研究重大项目(202302AO370007);云南省产教融合研究生联合培养基地项目(CZ22622203-2022-29);云南大学研究生科研创新基金项目(KC-23235375)。

摘　　要：喀斯特地区生态系统脆弱,对气候变化响应敏感,碳汇潜力巨大。其生态治理对土地利用格局的改变,使生态系统碳储量的变化显著,对陆地生态系统碳循环和区域生态安全具有深远影响。该研究以滇东南典型喀斯特地区文山壮族苗族自治州为例,运用InVEST模型和混合元胞自动机(MCCA)模型,预测了自然发展、耕地保护以及生态保护3种情景下2035年碳储量的分布状况,并采用全局Moran’s I指数以及敏感性指数,分别研究碳储量的时空演变规律和土地利用变化对碳储量的影响。结果表明:(1)文山州土地利用以耕地、林地、草地为主,占研究区总面积的90%以上。地类转换集中在林地、草地、耕地以及建设用地之间。(2)研究区整体碳储量较高,但随着土地利用方式变化,造成固碳效果和潜力均出现一定程度的降低。2000-2020年,碳储量共减少了0.66 Tg。Moran’s I指数均通过90%的置信度,表明碳储量在空间上呈现出空间集聚效应。(3)2035年,在自然发展、耕地保护以及生态保护3种情景下的碳储量分别为192.40、192.00、193.13 Tg。3种情景下,碳储量分别变化了0.11、-0.29、0.84 Tg。根据敏感性指数发现碳储量对土地利用变化敏感,林地变化是造成碳储量变化的主要原因。相比可知在生态保护的情景下,区域碳汇能力较强。建议研究区科学提高林地面积和优化现有用地的空间格局,控制建设用地等措施提升碳储量。The ecosystem in karst areas is fragile,sensitive to climate change,and has huge carbon sink potential.Its ecologi⁃cal management changes the land use pattern,causing significant changes in ecosystem carbon storage,and has a profound impact on the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems and regional ecological security.Using the Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture,a representative karst region in the southeastern Yunnan Province,as a case study,the study used the InVEST model and the hybrid cellular automaton(MCCA)model to predict the distribution of carbon stocks in 2035 under three scenarios:natural development,cultivated land protection,and ecological protection.The global Moran’s I index and sensitivity index were used to study the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon stocks and the impact of land use changes on carbon stocks respectively.The results show the land use in Wenshan Prefecture is mainly cultivated land,forest land and grassland,accounting for more than 90%of the total area of the study area.Land conversion is concentrated between forest land,grassland,cultivated land and construction land.The study area boasts a substantial carbon storage,yet as land use patterns shifted,its carbon sequestration capacity and potential underwent a decline.Over the span of 2000 to 2020,the carbon storage reduced by 0.66 Tg.Moran’s I index all passed 90%confidence level,indicating that carbon storage shows a spatial agglomeration effect in space.In 2035,forestland change is the main cause of carbon storage changes.The carbon storage under the three scenarios of natural development,ecological protection and cultivated land protection was 192.40 Tg,192.00 Tg and 193.13 Tg respectively.Under the three scenarios,carbon storage changed by 0.11 Tg,-0.29 Tg and 0.84 Tg,respectively.According to the sensitivity index,it was found that carbon stocks are sensitive to land use changes.By comparison,it can be seen that under the scenario of ecological protection,the regional carbon sequestration capacity is stron�

关 键 词：土地利用变化 碳储量 MCCA模型 情景模拟 滇东南喀斯特地区 

分 类 号：X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学]