基于FEFLOW和ARIMA模型的中关铁矿地下水动态模拟预测  

Simulation and Prediction of Groundwater Dynamics in Zhongguan IronMine Based on FEFLOW and ARIMA Models

作　　者：王岩 胡雪峰 贺海飞 WANG Yan;HU Xuefeng;HE Haifei(School of Mining Engineering,North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan 063200,China;Qinhuangdao Engineering Design and Research Institute of China Metallurgical Research Co.,Ltd.,Qinhuangdao 066000,China)

机构地区：[1]华北理工大学矿业工程学院,河北唐山063200 [2]中冶沈勘秦皇岛工程设计研究总院有限公司,河北秦皇岛066000

出　　处：《水资源开发与管理》2024年第9期60-68,84,共10页Water Resources Development and Management

摘　　要：为科学合理地开发中关矿区地下水资源,促进中关铁矿安全生产,通过构建地下水数值模型(基于FEFLOW模拟软件)和ARIMA地下水位预测模型,对研究区的地下水动态进行模拟分析和预测。结果表明,通过不断调整参数,最终FEFLOW模型水位动态模拟结果同实际水位结果相差不大,模型能够为研究区水位和涌水量预测提供支持;ARIMA模型拟合实际水位时间序列的效果较好,在短期预测内精度较高。研究成果对于地下水数值模拟和水文时序预测具有参考价值。To scientifically and reasonably develop groundwater resources in the Zhongguan mining area and promote the safe production and extraction of the Zhongguan iron mine,a groundwater numerical model(using FEFLOW simulation software)and an ARIMA groundwater level prediction model are constructed to simulate and predict the groundwater dynamics in the study area.The results indicate that,by continuously adjusting parameters,the final FEFLOW model’s simulated water level dynamics closely match the actual water level results,showing that the model can support predictions of water levels and inflow volumes in the study area.The ARIMA model effectively fits the actual water level time series and achieves high accuracy in short-term predictions.The research findings provide valuable references for groundwater numerical simulation and hydrological time series prediction.

关 键 词：地下水动态模拟 FEFLOW ARIMA 水位预测 中关铁矿 

分 类 号：P641[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]