基于交通运行特征的停车需求预测模型构建及应用  

Construction and Application of Parking Demand Prediction Model based on Traffic Operation Characteristics

作　　者：陈霞 彭玮玥 路静 杨明 孙贻璐 CHEN Xia;PENG Weiyue;LU Jing;YANG Ming;SUN Yilu(Wuhan Planning&Design Institute,Wuhan 430017,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉市规划研究院(武汉市交通发展战略研究院),武汉430017

出　　处：《交通工程》2024年第9期34-39,45,共7页Journal of Transportation Engineering

基　　金：武汉市科技计划项目《智慧化停车系统关键技术研究及应用》。

摘　　要：科学的停车需求预测是解决停车供需矛盾的基础,是停车规划、管理、设计的重要依据。在提炼停车需求影响因素并充分考虑动态交通运行影响的基础上,构建了基于交通运行特征的多尺度停车需求预测方法,不仅可更为准确地测算停车需求,还能打通不同空间尺度需求计算模型的壁垒。最后结合武汉市主城区进行需求预测模型的应用,证明了所构建模型可靠实用。Scientific parking demand prediction is the basis for solving the contradiction between parking supply and demand,and it is an important basis for parking planning,management and design.In this paper,on the basis of refining the influencing factors of parking demand and fully considering the influence of dynamic traffic operation,we constructed a multi-scale parking demand prediction method based on traffic operation characteristics,which can not only measure the parking demand more accurately,but also open up the barriers of different spatial scales of demand calculation models.Finally,the model is applied to the main urban area of Wuhan,which proves that the model is reliable and practical.

关 键 词：停车规划 动态交通 运行特征 停车需求 预测模型 多尺度 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]