基于空间聚类和贝叶斯模型平均的重力坝分区安全监控模型  

Safety monitoring model of gravity dam zoning based on spatial clustering and Bayesian model averaging

作　　者：郭张军 陈容 GUO Zhangjun;CHEN Rong(Power Research Institute of State Grid Shaanxi Electric Power Company Limited,Xi’an 710054,China;Datang Sichuan Power Generation Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610031,China)

机构地区：[1]国网陕西省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,陕西西安710054 [2]大唐四川发电有限公司,四川成都610031

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2024年第5期41-47,共7页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

摘　　要：针对重力坝多测点的时空相似性和统计模型结构的不确定性,使用层次聚类方法对所有变形测点进行空间聚类,基于主成分分析提取各分区多测点综合位移,使用贝叶斯模型平均(BMA)建立了多测点综合位移的统计模型。以安康水电站重力坝垂线监测分区2为例,讨论了综合位移的复杂BMA模型与简约BMA模型的因子优选结果,并结合加权平均模型的定量分析给出了模型的优选因子。分析结果表明:库水位涨落对坝体位移的影响没有明显的滞后性;下游水位对坝体位移的影响非常小,建模过程中可以忽略相关因子;温度升降对安康水电站重力坝位移的影响有明显的滞后性,且基本需要维持15 d以上的高温或低温,坝体位移才会有明显变化。In response to the spatiotemporal similarity of multiple measuring points in gravity dams and the uncertainty of statistical model structure,a hierarchical clustering method was used to spatially cluster all deformation measuring points.Principal component analysis was use to extract the comprehensive displacement of multiple measuring points in each zone.A statistical model for the comprehensive displacement of multiple measuring points was established using the Bayesian model averaging(BMA)method.Using the second zone along the vertical monitoring line of the gravity dam of Ankang Hydropower Station as an example,the optimization results of the complex BMA model and the simplified BMA model for comprehensive displacement were discussed,and the optimal factors of the models were given based on the quantitative analysis of the weighted average model.The analysis results indicate that the fluctuations in reservoir water level have no significant lag effect on dam displacement.The impact of downstream water level on dam displacement is very small,and relevant factors can be ignored in the modeling process.The impact of temperature rise and fall on the displacement of the dam shows a significant lag,and it is necessary to maintain high or low temperatures for more than 15 days before significant changes in the displacement of the dam body occur.

关 键 词：重力坝 变形 贝叶斯模型平均 空间聚类 主成分分析 安康水电站 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]