中国金融安全的动态演化与监测预警  

Dynamic Evolution,Early Warning and Monitoring of China's Financial Security

作　　者：方意 杨凡佳 王琦[1] FANG Yi;YANG Fan-jia;WANG Qi(Institute of National Development and Strategy,RUC,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院,北京100872

出　　处：《江苏行政学院学报》2024年第4期40-48,共9页The Journal of Jiangsu Administration Institute

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“中国金融安全统计监测、预警与对策研究”(23&ZD058)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：金融是实体经济的血脉,保障金融安全是推动经济高质量发展的重要基础。本文将中国金融安全的动态演化过程归纳为风险冲击、风险传染和风险扩散三个环节,并详细阐明三个环节的原理和方法论。在此基础上,构建与金融安全动态演化逻辑一致的金融安全监测预警指标体系。该体系包括三大模块、涉及经济金融各部门、涵盖多维数据和复杂指标。本文进一步对指标选取、数据处理、模型构建和政策配合的具体问题开展针对性研究,并提出维护金融安全的具体举措。Finance is the bloodline of the real economy,and ensuring financial security is an important foundation for promoting high⁃quality economic development.This paper summarizes the dynamic development process of China's financial security into three segments:risk impact,risk contagion and risk diffusion,and clarifies the principles and methodology of response for the three segments in detail.On this basis,a financial security monitoring and early warning indicator system is constructed in accordance with the logic of the dynamic evolution of financial security.The system consists of three mod⁃ules,involves different economic and financial sectors,and covers multi⁃dimensional data and complex indicators.This pa⁃per also conducts targeted research on the specific issues of indicator selection,data processing,model construction and policy coordination,and proposes specific initiatives to safeguard financial security.

关 键 词：金融安全 风险演化 监测预警指标体系 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]