基于多目标模糊优选模型的防洪预报调度规则决策树制定与效果分析——以大亚湾区鱿鱼湾水库为例  

Decision Tree Formulation and Effect Analysis of Flood Control Forecasting and Dispatching Rules Based on Multi-objective Fuzzy Optimal Selection Model—Taking the Squid Bay Reservoir in Daya Bay Area as an Example

作　　者：陈慧威 CHEN Huiwei(Hedi Reservoir Management Office,Huizhou Daya Bay Civil Affairs Bureau,Huizhou 516000,China)

机构地区：[1]惠州市大亚湾社会事务管理局河堤水库管理所,广东惠州516000

出　　处：《广东水利水电》2024年第9期108-112,共5页Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower

摘　　要：以鱿鱼湾水库为研究对象,基于多目标模糊优选模型和决策树方法,探讨了防洪预报调度规则的制定和效果分析,通过收集整理鱿鱼湾水库的水文数据,分析水库调洪演算基本原则,研究多目标模糊优选模型理论和方法,制定水库防洪预报调度规则决策树,并对洪水调度的准确性和适用性进行分析。研究结果表明,基于多目标模糊优选模型的防洪预报调度规则决策树可以有效提高水库的防洪能力和评估模型的决策效果,可为类似研究提供借鉴参考。This study takes the Squid Bay Reservoir as the research object,and based on the multi-objective fuzzy optimization model and decision tree method,explores the formulation and effectiveness analysis of flood control forecast scheduling rules.Firstly,the hydrological data of the squid bay reservoir was collected and organized,and the basic principles of flood control and routing for the reservoir were analyzed.Subsequently,the theory and method of multi-objective fuzzy optimization model were studied,and the decision tree for reservoir flood control prediction and operation rules was formulated to analyze the accuracy and applicability of flood operation.The research results indicate that the decision tree for flood control forecasting and scheduling rules based on multi-objective fuzzy optimization model can effectively improve the flood control capacity of reservoirs and evaluate the decision-making effectiveness of the model.This study provides theoretical and methodological support for the formulation of flood control forecasting and scheduling rules for reservoirs,and provides reference and inspiration for similar research in the field of hydrology and water resources.

关 键 词：多目标模糊优选模型 决策树 防洪预报调度规则 鱿鱼湾水库 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]