美国货币政策非对称性变动与新兴市场跨境资本流动顺周期性:理论逻辑与政策应对  

Asymmetric Changes in US Monetary Policy and Procyclicality of Cross-border Capital Flows in Emerging Markets:Theoretical Logic and Policy Responses

作　　者：张广婷[1] ZHANG Guangting

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院世界经济研究所

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2024年第8期90-105,M0004,共17页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“流动性周期视角下我国跨境资本流动的风险与防范研究”(主持人:张广婷;项目批准号:19CJL049)资助。

摘　　要：近20年来,全球跨境资本流动呈现出新特征和新风险,其中最主要的表现是新兴市场跨境资本流动的周期敏感性显著增强。本质上看,造成这一现象的主要原因是美国货币政策的非对称性变动,尤其是驱动美联储提高利率的背后因素的作用。据此,文章从微观机理、宏观传导以及冲击差异三个维度,深入剖析美国货币政策非对称性变动对跨境资本流动顺周期性影响的理论逻辑。理论上看,在微观层面,美联储政策目标的非对称性导致其货币政策策略逐渐由“规则式行为”(Rule-like Behaviour)转向了更加被动的“相机抉择”(Discretion),这实际上是一种衰退回避偏好(RAP);在宏观层面,金融体系中的信息不对称与“金融加速器”效应形成负反馈循环,在信号效应的作用下放大金融冲击,但是在传导过程中因“美联储信息效应”、市场预期以及东道国的异质性导致冲击存在差异。基于理论分析和国际经验,文章给出了新形势下新兴市场应对跨境资本流动周期敏感性的政策建议。In the past 20 years, global cross-border capital flows have shown new characteristics and risks, with the most significant manifestation being the significantly increased cyclical sensitivity of cross-border capital flows in emerging markets. Essentially, the main reason for this phenomenon is the asymmetric changes in US monetary policy, especially the role of the underlying factors driving the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Based on this, the article deeply analyzes the theoretical logic of the impact of asymmetric changes in US monetary policy on the pro-cyclical nature of cross-border capital flows from three dimensions: micro mechanism, macro transmission, and impact differences. In theory, at the micro level, the asymmetry of the Federal Reserve′s policy objectives has led to a gradual shift in its monetary policy strategy from "rule like behavior" to a more passive "discretion", which is actually a recession avoidance preference(RAP). At the macro level, information asymmetry and the "financial accelerator" effect in the financial system form a negative feedback loop, amplifying financial shocks under the signal effect;However, there are differences in shocks during the transmission process due to the Fed Information Effects, market expectations, and heterogeneity in the host country.Finally, based on theoretical analysis and international experience, the article provides policy recommendations for emerging markets to respond to the sensitivity of cross-border capital flow cycles in the new situation.

关 键 词：货币政策非对称性变动 跨境资本流动 顺周期性 理论逻辑 

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