从能耗双控到碳双控: 多视角下的政策对比  

From Dual Control of Energy Consumption to Dual Control of Carbon:A Comparative Study of Policies from Multiple Perspectives

作　　者：唐浪 汪鹏[2] 任松彦[2] TANG Lang;WANG Peng;REN Song-yan(School of Energy Science and Engineering,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230000,China;Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学能源科学与技术学院,合肥230000 [2]中国科学院广州能源研究所,广州510000

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2024年第25期11019-11029,共11页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA29010500);国家自然科学基金(71603248)。

摘　　要：为探究能耗双控与碳排放双控政策差异,通过构建全国动态一般均衡(computable general equilibrium,CGE)模型,创新性地利用模型中碳约束能间接影响能耗变化这一特性,在同时满足总量与强度目标前提下,模拟了能耗双控政策与碳排放双控政策并进行多视角对比分析。结果表明:只加大碳限制力度对经济发展不利,严格碳限制情景相对基准情景国内生产总值(gross domestic product,GDP)损失超过0.15%;限制对象为高耗能行业相对全行业促进能源转型更明显,2030年限制高耗能行业情景一次能源结构中电力占比相较限制全行业情景多0.10%~0.15%,另外限制全行业对促进就业明显,“十四五”“十五五”“十六五”相对基准情景就业分别增加10.5万、29万、62.3万人;双控政策对比来看碳双控更优,因为在相同碳排放量约束下碳排放双控情景比能耗双控情景能源消费需求多0.3亿t标煤,能更好符合能源消费量弹性控制。通过模型模拟的结论,得出政策启示:需要在完善能耗双控的基础上过渡到以碳排放总量和强度为主的指标考核体系;应当优先针对高耗能行业开展碳排放总量控制考核;积极稳健地扩大碳市场覆盖范围并加强政府有效监管。To explore the differences between dual control policies on energy consumption and carbon emissions,a national dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE)model was constructed and the characteristic was innovatively utilized that carbon constraints in the model can indirectly affect energy consumption changes.Under the premise of meeting both total and intensity targets,it simulates and conducts a multi-perspective comparative analysis of both energy consumption dual control and carbon emissions dual control policies.The results indicate that merely increasing carbon restrictions is detrimental to economic development,with a gross domestic product(GDP)loss exceeding 0.15%in scenarios of strict carbon restrictions compared to the baseline scenario.Targeting high-energy-consuming industries rather than all industries more significantly promotes energy transition,with the proportion of electricity in the primary energy structure in 2030 being 0.10%to 0.15%higher in scenarios targeting high-energy-consuming industries compared to those restricting all industries.Moreover,restricting all industries significantly boosts employment,with jobs increasing by 105000,290000,and 623000 in the“14th Five-Year Plan,”“15th Five-Year Plan,”and“16th Five-Year Plan”periods,respectively,compared to the baseline scenario.Comparing dual control policies,carbon dual control is more advantageous,under the same carbon emission constraints,the carbon emissions dual control scenario has a higher energy consumption demand by 30 million tons of standard coal,better aligning with the control of energy consumption elasticity.Through the conclusions of model simulation,the policy implications are drawn as follows:it is necessary to transition to an assessment system primarily based on the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions,on the basis of perfecting the dual control of energy consumption.Priority should be given to conducting total carbon emission control assessments for high-energy-consuming industries,and there should b

关 键 词：能耗双控 碳双控 碳交易 CGE 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X321