超越模糊共识:“有限互嵌”型决策过程研究  

Beyond Ambiguous Consensus:A Study of the“Limited Scope and Mutual Embedding”Decision-Making Process

作　　者：吴少微[1] 魏姝[1] 黄章龙 杨忠[3] Wu Shaowei;Wei Su;Huang Zhanglong;Yang Zhong

机构地区：[1]南京大学政府管理学院,江苏省南京市210023 [2]清华大学公共管理学院,北京市100084 [3]南京大学商学院,江苏省南京市210093

出　　处：《政治学研究》2024年第4期71-87,M0006,共18页CASS Journal of Political Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新型举国体制下科技创新要素的优化配置”(23&ZD133);江苏省社会科学基金青年项目“专业化视角下江苏公务员分类管理改革研究”(18GLC009)的研究成果。

摘　　要：超大国家的治理现实和网络时代的强外部压力决定了中国政策过程“模糊共识+执行协商”的特征,一旦遭遇棘手问题,政策就会表现出“高模糊高冲突”属性,使得执行协商的压力增大、失灵风险提升。政策执行研究大多将政策属性作为不变的背景因素,很少考虑政策问题和决策过程对政策属性的影响。结合棘手问题与决策过程的讨论,本文以医药领域为案例,借助政策设计理论分析发现:问题的棘手特征决定了政策的模糊性和冲突性难以消除,但模糊和冲突的程度可以为决策过程所调节;决策过程中的经验积累和学习反思使决策机构能逐步优化决策权配置和政策工具选择,一方面通过限定政策范围以缓解信息不对称,另一方面通过政策互嵌以减轻成本收益不对称,从而显著降低政策的模糊性和冲突性,影响执行难度乃至最终结果。换言之,历经多轮决策和执行,决策从“模糊共识”发展为“有限互嵌”模式。本文从决策过程角度为棘手问题的讨论增添了实证基础,也为理解政策失灵问题提供了新视角。The vast scope of national governance and the strong external pressure of the internet era determine that China's policy process presents the characteristics of“Ambiguous consensus+Deliberative implementation”,which makes policies exhibit“high ambiguity and high conflict”attributes when encountering wicked problems,and increases the difficulty of implementation and the risk of policy failure.Most studies on policy implementation treat policy attributes as exogenous variables,overlooking the influence of policy issues and the decision-making process on policy attributes.This paper integrates the discourse on wicked problems and the decision-making process,and draws upon policy design theory to analyze the decision-making processes of the healthcare policies.It is found that the inherently wicked nature of the policy issue determines that policy ambiguity and conflict are unavoidable but can be mitigated through the decision-making process.Through iterative experiences and reflective learning,decision-making bodies can optimize the distribution of decision-making authority and the selection of policy instruments.By limiting the scope of policies,the information asymmetry between governments and society can be alleviated;by mutual embedding among relevant policies,the cost-benefit asymmetry between different social entities can be alleviated.Therefore the“limited scope and mutual embedding”decision-making process can significantly reduce the ambiguity and conflict of policies,thereby affecting the difficulty of policy implementation and even the final policy result.In short,over multiple cycles of decision-making and implementation,the decision-making process may evolve from the“ambiguous consensus”mn ode to the“limited scope and mutual embedding”mode.This paper provides some empirical evidences for studying wicked problems from the perspective of decision-making process,and also offers a new perspective for understanding policy failures.

关 键 词：政策失灵 模糊共识 有限互嵌 政策设计 决策过程 

分 类 号：D630[政治法律—政治学]