影响北极气候快速变化的关键物理机制  

On the Physics of Arctic Climate Rapid Change

作　　者：陈显尧 蔡娣 毕瀚文 陈玥 王英洁 王雅文 郑欢 廖秋红 王子卓 Chen Xianyao;Cai Di;Bi Hanwen;Chen Yue;Wang Yingjie;Wang Yawen;Zheng Huan;Liao Qiuhong;Wang Zizhuo(Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System,Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography,Ministry of Edution,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research,Bremerhaven 27570,Germany;Academy of the Future Ocean,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学深海圈层与地球系统前沿科学中心,物理海洋教育部重点实验室,山东青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院,山东青岛266100 [3]阿尔弗雷德·魏格纳极地与海洋研究所,不来梅哈芬德国27570 [4]中国海洋大学未来海洋学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第10期76-82,共7页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：国家重点研究发展计划项目(2019YFA0607000)资助。

摘　　要：在增加相同的温室气体辐射强迫作用下,北极区域表面温度的上升速度是全球平均表面温度上升速度的2~4倍。这种北极气候快速变化的现象被称为“北极放大”。本文简要综述了导致北极放大的驱动机制,分析指出关于影响北极快速变化机制的研究需要面对的两个挑战:一是可能仍然缺失正反馈机制,从而导致气候模式预测的北极夏季海冰融化速度始终低于实际观测;二是缺失负反馈机制,无法合理解释北极表面温度在多年代际时间尺度上出现的位相转换。改进未来北极海冰变化的预测能力需要兼顾上述两个北极快速变化的重要特征。Under the same radiative forcing of greenhouse gases,the rate of surface temperature rise in the Arctic region is 2~4 times that of the global average surface temperature increase.This rapid change in the Arctic climate is referred to as"Arctic Amplification".This paper provides a brief review of the driving mechanisms behind Arctic Amplification,and emphasizes two challenges for understand-ing the mechanisms of the rapid Arctic change.First,there may still be missing positive feedback mech-anisms,leading to climate models underestimating the rate of Arctic summer sea ice melt compared to the observations.Second,the lack of negative feedback mechanisms,which is needed for explaining the phase transitions of Arctic surface temperature on the multidecadal time scales.Enhancing the prediction of future Arctic sea ice variability should consider both of these critical aspects of rapid Arctic changes.

关 键 词：北极放大 正反馈 负反馈 多年代际振荡 

分 类 号：P732.5[天文地球—海洋科学]