公共财政教育支出的生育促进效应--基于我国31个省份和277个地级市数据的实证研究  

The Fertility Promotion Effect of Public Financial Expenditures on Education:an Empirical Study Based on Data from 31 Provinces and 277 Prefecture-Level Cities in China

作　　者：王新颖 胡耀宗 WANG Xinying;HU Yaozong(Faculty of Education,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学教育学部,上海200062

出　　处：《成都师范学院学报》2024年第5期1-14,共14页Journal of Chengdu Normal University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(20AGL030)。

摘　　要：为探讨公共财政教育支出对生育率的影响,采用2010—2020年31个省份和全国277个地级市数据建立面板模型,运用双向固定效应模型进行分析并作异质性讨论,得出以下结论:公共教育财政支出对人口出生率具有正向促进效应,这种促进效应在东部和中部地区比西部地区更强,在幼儿园阶段比义务教育和高中教育阶段更强,而在高等教育阶段反而有抑制效应,并且公共财政教育支出的生育促进效应有一定的滞后性。因此,政府财政部门应当继续扩大公共财政教育支出,并且有针对性地增加对中西部地区和幼儿园阶段的支出,促进教育资源的均衡分配;教育部门应当建立合理的教育评价体系,营造和谐的教育环境,提高公共教育服务的质量和满意度;政府相关部门和社区应当为家庭提供生育津贴和教育支持,以期提高我国的生育率。To explore the impact of public financial expenditure on education on the fertility rate,a panel model is constructed using data from 31 provinces and 277 prefecture-level cities across China from 2010 to 2020.The analysis is carried out using a two-way fixed-effects model,with a discussion of heterogeneity.The following conclusions are obtained:public financial expenditure on education has a positive effect on promoting the fertility rate.This effect is stronger in the eastern and central regions than that in the western region,and stronger in the kindergarten stage than that in the stages of compulsory education and high school education.However,in the stage of higher education,it has an inhibitory effect.Furthermore,the fertility-promoting effect of public financial expenditure on education has a certain lag.Therefore,government financial departments should continue to expand public financial expenditure on education and,in a targeted manner,increase expenditure on the central and western regions and the kindergarten stage to promote the balanced distribution of educational resources.Education departments should establish a reasonable education evaluation system,create a harmonious educational environment,and improve the quality of and satisfaction with public education services.Relevant government departments and communities should provide families with maternity allowances and educational support to improve China’s fertility rate.

关 键 词：公共财政教育支出 生育率 生育意愿 世代交叠模型 双向固定效应模型 人力资本 

分 类 号：G521[文化科学—教育学]