Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the probability of serious complication in esophageal cancer patients after esophagectomy  

作　　者：Fei-Fei Chong Zhen-Yu Huo Meng-Yuan Zhang Xiu-Mei He Si-Yu Luo Jie Liu 

机构地区：[1]Department of Clinical Nutrition,Daping Hospital,Army Medical University(The Third Military Medical University),Chongqing 400042,China [2]Chongqing Municipal Health Commission Key Laboratory of Intelligent Clinical Nutrition and Transformation,Chongqing 400042,China [3]Department of Clinical Nutrition,The Thirteenth People’s Hospital of Chongqing,Chongqing 400053,China

出　　处：《Journal of Nutritional Oncology》2024年第1期17-24,共8页肿瘤营养学杂志（英文）

基　　金：the Key Program of Chongqing Municipal Science and Health Joint Medical Research Project(No.2024DBXM005);the Chongqing Municipal Health Commission Medical Science Research Project(No.2024WSJK024).

摘　　要：Background:Esophagectomy remains a procedure with one of the highest complication rates.This study aimed to develop and validate a model of nomogram for predicting the probability serious postoperative complications for the postoperative esophageal cancer(EC)patients.Methods:An observational study was conducted at Daping Hospital,China,encompassing 529 postoperative EC patients from December 2014 to November 2023.Weintegrated independent prognostic factors to craft a predictivemodel,specifically a nomogram,designed to forecast the risk of severe postoperative complications.Results:The incidence of serious complications for postoperative EC patients was 58.1%.A total of seven variables,including age,gender,bleeding volume during the operation(P=0.035),operating time(P=0.031),the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002(NRS 2002)score(P=0.027),the perioperative nutrition screen(PONS)score(P=0.018),and cystatin C levels(P<0.001),were applied to draw the nomogram of predicting serious complications after esophagectomy.The accuracy of predictive value for the model was quantified by Harrell’s C index at 0.690(95%confidence interval=0.596-0.785,P<0.001).Conclusion:We developed a nomogram system to demonstrate exceptional predictive capabilities for postoperative EC patients in forecasting the risk of serious complications.These results also emphasize the predictive value of the preoperative nutritional risk screening with NRS 2002 and PONS in EC patients undergoing esophagectomy.

关 键 词：Esophageal cancer ESOPHAGECTOMY Postoperative complication NRS 2002 Perioperative nutrition screen 

分 类 号：R735.1[医药卫生—肿瘤]