基于年龄-时期-队列模型的中国睾丸癌疾病负担研究  

Incidence and Mortality of Testicular Cancer in China Based on the Age-Period-Cohort Model

作　　者：程双蕾 陈龙 徐远铮 李明林[1] 李征[1] CHENG Shuang-lei;CHEN Long;XU Yuan-zheng;LI Ming-lin;LI Zheng(Department of Urology,Nanyang Central Hospital,Henan Nanyang 473099,China)

机构地区：[1]南阳市中心医院泌尿外科,河南南阳473099

出　　处：《循证医学》2024年第4期251-256,共6页The Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

摘　　要：目的分析1990-2019年中国睾丸癌的发病和死亡情况,并探讨年龄、时期和队列效应对睾丸癌发病和死亡的影响。方法利用全球疾病负担(Global Burden of Disease,GBD)2019数据库,分析1990-2019年中国睾丸癌发病和死亡情况,应用Joinpoint软件分析标化发病率和标化死亡率的时间变化趋势,计算平均年度变化百分比。构建年龄-时期-队列模型,分析年龄、时期和出生队列效应对睾丸癌发病及死亡趋势变化的影响。结果2019年,中国睾丸癌发病率为1.21/10万,死亡率为0.08/10万,发病率和死亡率比1990年升高了348.15%和14.29%。1990-2019年,中国睾丸癌标化发病率呈升高趋势,平均每年升高5.23%,趋势有统计学意义(P<0.05),睾丸癌标化死亡率呈下降趋势,平均每年下降0.12%,但趋势无统计学意义(P>0.05)。年龄效应结果显示,1990-2019年中国睾丸癌的发病率和死亡率整体呈升高趋势,发病率和死亡率均在60岁以后呈快速升高趋势,在85岁以上年龄组达到高峰。时期效应结果显示,1990-2019年,中国睾丸癌发病风险的时期变化相对危险度(relative ratio,RR)呈升高趋势,在2015-2019年发病风险最高,发病风险RR=2.44[95%可信区间(confidence interval,CI)2.31~2.56];睾丸癌死亡风险的时期变化RR值趋势呈下降趋势,1995-1999年死亡风险最高,死亡风险RR=1.09(95%CI 0.99~1.19)。队列效应结果显示,出生越晚的人,发病风险越高,死亡风险越低。结论1990-2019年,中国居民睾丸癌的标化发病率呈升高趋势,标化死亡率呈下降趋势但无统计学意义。不同年龄、时期和出生队列的睾丸癌流行病学模式和趋势可能为公共卫生提供新的见解,这些发现可为进一步减轻睾丸癌负担的公共卫生策略的制定提供重要依据。Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality of testicular cancer in China from 1990 to 2019,and to explore the influence of age,period,and cohort effect on the incidence and mortality of testicular cancer.Methods Using the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2019 database,the incidence and mortality of testicular cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed,and the time variation trend of age-standardized incidence and age-standardized mortality was analyzed by using Joinpoint software,and the average annual variation percentage was calculated.The age-period-cohort model was constructed to analyze the influence of age,period,and birth cohort effects on the incidence and mortality trend of testicular cancer.Results In 2019,the incidence of testicular cancer in China was 1.21/100000,and the mortality was 0.08/100000.The incidence and mortality increased by 348.15%and 14.29%respectively compared with 1990.From 1990 to 2019,the age-standardized incidence of testicular cancer in China showed an upward trend,with an average annual increase of 5.23%,which was statistically significant(P<0.05),while the age-standardized mortality of testicular cancer showed a downward trend,with an average annual decrease of 0.12%,but the trend was not statistically significant(P>0.05).The results of the age effect showed that the incidence and mortality of testicular cancer in China showed an overall upward trend from 1990 to 2019.Both the incidence and mortality showed a rapid increase trend after 60 years old,reaching a peak in the age group over 85 years old.The results of the period effect showed that the relative ratio(RR)of the incidence risk of testicular cancer in China increased from 1990 to 2019,and the incidence RR was the highest from 2015 to 2019,with RR=2.44[95%confidence interval(CI)2.31~2.56].The period changes in the mortality risk of testicular cancer showed a downward trend,and the mortality RR was the highest from 1995 to 1999,with the mortality RR=1.09(95%CI 0.99~1.19).The results of the cohort effect show that the

关 键 词：睾丸癌 中国 年龄-时期-队列模型 发病率 死亡率 

分 类 号：R737.2[医药卫生—肿瘤]