棉花期现货价格变动分析  

Analysis of Changes in Cotton Spot and Futures Prices

作　　者：黄恩愿 HUANG En-yuan(School of Economics,Changchun University,Changchun,130022,China)

机构地区：[1]长春大学经济学院,吉林长春130022

出　　处：《长春金融高等专科学校学报》2024年第5期26-33,共8页Journal of Changchun Finance College

摘　　要：2022年我国《中华人民共和国期货和衍生品法》实施,棉花期现货价格均有所变动。通过采用VECM模型、统计因果关系分析和脉冲响应函数等方法对《中华人民共和国期货和衍生品法》实施前后棉花期现货价格变动状况进行对比分析。结果表明,该法实施前后棉花期现货价格之间长期稳定关系没有发生变化,但期现货价格之间影响的传导方向发生改变。该法实施前棉花期现货价格之间互为因果关系,实施后只存在期货价格对于现货价格的单向统计因果关系,实施前后期现货价格关系存在显著变化。The implementation of China's Futures and Derivatives Law in 2022 has resulted in changes in cotton futures and spot prices.By using methods such as VECM model,statistical causal analysis,and im-pulse response function,a comparative analysis was conducted on the changes in cotton futures and spot prices before and after the implementation of the China's Futures and Derivatives Law.The results indicate that the long-term stable relationship between cotton futures and spot prices has not changed before and af-ter the implementation of the law,but the transmission direction of the impact between futures and spot prices has changed.Before the implementation of this law,there was a causal relationship between cotton futures and spot prices.After implementation,there was only a one-way statistical causal relationship be-tween futures prices and spot prices.There were significant changes in the relationship between spot prices before and after implementation.

关 键 词：棉花 棉花期货 价格变动 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F724.5