多源融合降水和智能网格预报在渭河一次洪水预报中的应用  

Application of Multi-Source Precipitation Merged Products and Intelligent Grid Weather Forecast in a Flood Forecasting in Weihe River Basin

作　　者：王振亚[1,2] 王迪 董俊玲 葛振飞[1,2] Wang Zhenya;Wang Di;Dong Junling;Ge Zhenfei(CMA·Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Henan Meteorological Observatory,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室,郑州450003 [2]河南省气象台,郑州450003

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2024年第5期9-16,共8页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3209301);中国气象局气象能力提升联合研究专项(22NLTSY005);2023年度河南省重点研发与推广专项(科技攻关)(232102320027);河南省科技研发计划联合基金(应用攻关类)项目(222103810092);河南省2021年度国家超级计算郑州中心创新生态系统建设科技专项(201400210800)。

摘　　要：选取2018年6月28日至7月15日渭河干流魏家堡水文站洪水过程为研究对象,开展多源融合降水和智能网格预报在洪水模拟中的应用试验。结果表明,以多源融合和站点实况降水为输入均能较好地模拟洪水过程,因此在无降水观测资料的流域,采用多源融合降水产品代替站点实况降水进行洪水模拟分析和计算是可行的,但多源融合降水模拟的径流深和洪峰流量较小。在魏家堡水文站两次洪水过程洪峰出现前48 h的面雨量相差不大的情况下,产流量相差显著,说明前期土壤湿度对渭河流域的产流影响很大,防汛时特别要关注持续性降水的影响。以落地雨进行洪水预报的预见期为12 h,以智能网格预报产品作为降水输入,能够提前84 h预报出超保证流量的洪峰流量,将洪水预见期由12 h延长至84 h。但以智能网格降水预报计算的面雨量与实况面雨量相比有一定的高估,造成了模拟的洪峰流量和径流深相对误差较大。建议针对不同的天气背景开展面雨量订正方法研究,以提高面雨量预报准确率,在延长洪水预见期的同时,进一步提高洪水预报精度。The application experiment of multi-source precipitation merged products and intelligent grid forecast in flood simulation is carried out based on the flood process from June 28 to July 15,2018 at Weijiabao hydrological station of the Weihe River.The results indicate that both multi-source merged precipitation and station-observed precipitation can be used as input data to simulate the flood process effectively.It is feasible to use multi-source precipitation merged products instead of site precipitation for flood simulation analysis and calculation in river basin without precipitation observation data,but the simulated runoff depth and peak flow are relatively smaller as multi-source merged precipitation tends to underestimate precipitation.The runoff yield is significantly different when the areal rainfall in 48 h before the flood peak is not much different in two flood processes at Weijiapbao hydrological station,indicating that the soil moisture in the early stage has a great influence on the runoff yield in the Weihe River basin.Therefore,special attention should be paid to the impact of persistent precipitation during flood control.The forecast period of flood could significantly extend from 12 h to 84 h,as it is 12 h using observed precipitation but 84 h taking intelligent grid weather forecast as precipitation input.However,the relative error of simulated runoff depth and peak flow are relatively large as the intelligent grid precipitation forecast is likely to overestimate the areal rainfall.In order to improve accuracy of areal rainfall forecast,it is suggested to research the areal rainfall correction method according to different weather backgrounds,and further improve the accuracy of flood forecast while extending forecast period of flood.

关 键 词：多源融合降水 智能网格预报 洪水预报 魏家堡水文站 新安江模型 

分 类 号：P458.121[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]