乌鲁木齐市35~75岁体检人群心血管病高危预测模型的建立与验证  

Establishment and validation of a cardiovascular disease(CVD)high-risk prediction model for physical examination population aged 35 to 75 in Urumqi

作　　者：马思懿 邹媛[1] 苏比德·阿力木江 韩雷[1] 刘波 MA Siyi;ZOU Yuan;Subide Alimujiang;HAN Lei;LIU Bo(Department of Healthcare,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830017,China;Department of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830017,China;The Health Commission of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830002,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学健康管理学院,乌鲁木齐830017 [2]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院,乌鲁木齐830017 [3]新疆维吾尔自治区卫生健康委员会,乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《新疆医科大学学报》2024年第9期1312-1320,共9页Journal of Xinjiang Medical University

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区科技厅资源共享平台建设项目(PT2207)。

摘　　要：目的了解乌鲁木齐市35~75岁体检人群心血管病(CVD)高危人群检出情况并建立多因素Logistic回归模型与决策树模型预测CVD高危人群,对比分析模型预测效果及准确率,为CVD的预防控制提供参考依据。方法于2023年6月-2024年1月采用便利抽样方法在乌鲁木齐市某三甲医院体检中心抽取40364名35~75岁体检者进行问卷调查和体格检查,分析CVD高危人群检出情况;应用多因素Logistic回归分析方法以及决策树模型建立CVD高危预测模型,并对模型的预测效果和准确性进行比较和分析。结果40364名35~75岁体检人群中,检出CVD高危人群10858名,CVD高危人群检出率为26.9%。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄>40岁、商业服务业、退(离)休人员、吸烟、饮食中肉食摄入过多或过少是35~75岁体检人群CVD高危人群检出的危险因素。女性、初高中以上文化程度、专业技术人员、办事人员或职员、农林牧渔生产人员以及生产运输设备操作工人、每周运动1次及以上是乌鲁木齐市35~75岁体检人群CVD高危人群检出的保护因素。CVD高危人群体质指数、收缩压、舒张压、臀围、腰围、空腹血糖、总胆固醇、甘油三酯、高密度脂蛋白和低密度脂蛋白胆固醇中除高密度脂蛋白低于非高危人群外,其余均高于非高危人群,差异有统计学意义(均P<0.001)。以人口学特征(年龄、吸烟习惯、饮食习惯)和体检指标(收缩压、舒张压、空腹血糖、丙氨酸氨基转移酶、门冬氨酸氨基转移酶、总胆固醇、甘油三酯、高密度脂蛋白、低密度脂蛋白)为自变量,通过多因素Logistic回归以及决策树模型建立CVD高危预测模型,两个模型均具有较好的预测准确率,多因素Logistic回归模型与决策树模型的AUC值均为0.867(95%CI=0.864~0.871,P<0.001)。结论乌鲁木齐市35~75岁体检人群CVD高危人群检出率相对较高。构建的多因素Logistic回归模型以及可视化�Objective To understand the detection of high-risk population of cardiovascular disease(CVD)in the physical examination population aged 35-75 in Urumqi,and to establish a multi-factor Logistic regression model and decision tree model to predict the high-risk population of CVD,and to compare and analyze the prediction effect and accuracy of the model,providing a reference for the prevention and control of CVD.Methods From June 2023 to January 2024,40364 physical examiners aged 35 to 75 years old were selected from the physical examination center of a top three hospital in Urumqi for questionnaire investigation and physical examination,and the detection status of CVD high-risk groups was analyzed.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis method and decision tree model were used to establish CVD risk prediction model,compare and analyze the prediction effect and accuracy of the model.Results Among the 40364 physical examination population aged 35-75 in Urumqi,10858 were detected as high-risk individuals for CVD,with a detection rate of 26.9%.The results of multiple factor Logistic regression analysis showed that age>40,commercial service industry,retirees,smoking,excessive or insufficient intake of meat in the diet were risk factors detected for CVD among the individuals aged 35-75.Women,education level of junior high school or above,professional and technical personnel,administrative personnel,agricultural,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery production personnel,as well as production and transportation workers,and exercising once a week or more were protective factors for the high-risk population of CVD among physical examination population aged 35-75 in Urumqi.The body mass index,systolic blood pressure,diastolic blood pressure,hip circumference,waist circumference,fasting blood glucose,total cholesterol,triglycerides,high-density lipoprotein and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in the high-risk population for CVD,except for high-density lipoprotein which was lower than that in the non high-risk population,we

关 键 词：心血管病(CVD) 高危人群 决策树 

分 类 号：R194.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]