绝经期女性性激素水平在甲状腺乳头状癌中预测模型的构建  

Construction of a Predictive Model for Sex Hormone Levels in Papillary Thyroid Cancer in Menopausal Women

作　　者：袁成 木拉提[2] YUAN Cheng;MULATI(Shihezi University School of Medicine,Xinjiang Shihezi,832002;Department of Gastrointestinal and Thyroid Surgery,the First Affiliated Hospital of Shihezi University,Xinjiang Shihezi,832008)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学医学院,新疆石河子832002 [2]石河子大学第一附属医院胃肠甲状腺外科,新疆石河子832008

出　　处：《农垦医学》2024年第3期217-220,共4页Journal of Nongken Medicine

摘　　要：目的:研究绝经期甲状腺乳头状癌患者的性激素表达水平,建立其预测甲状腺乳头状癌患者预后的列线图模型。方法:选取2023年03月至2023年08月在我院因甲状腺乳头状癌(PTC)行甲状腺癌根治术的绝经期女性患者27例以及良性甲状腺疾病绝经期女性患者88例,抽取血清测定性激素水平,分析两组患者性激素表达水平差异与其临床病理特征,基于结果建立列线图预测模型,并对模型的预测进行内部验证。结果:PTC组患者血清中孕激素(P)及泌乳素(PRL)水平高于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);受试者特征曲线(ROC)结果显示,雌激素(E2)、睾酮(T)、P、PRL预测围绝经妇女甲状腺癌的曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.531、0.518、0.657、0.771,最佳临界值分别为18.775/pmol/L、0.455nmol/L、0.405nmol/L、251.950m IU/L;基于临床病理特征等危险因素建立列线图模型,模型验证显示该列线图模型具有良好的预测准确性。结论:性激素中P及PRL与绝经期PTC女性患者密切相关,以PRL基于相关临床危险因素构建列线图模型具有良好的预测价值。Objective:To study the sex hormone expression levels in menopausal patients with papillary thyroid cancer and to establish its columnar graphical model for predicting the prognosis of patients with papillary thyroid cancer.Methods:Twenty-seven menopausal female patients who underwent radical thyroidectomy for papillary thyroid carcinoma(PTC)and 88 menopausal female patients with benign thyroid disease were selected from March 2023 to August 2023,and serum was taken to measure the sex hormone levels,to analyze the differences in the expression levels of the sex hormones between the two groups and their clinicopathological characteristics,and to establish a columnar graph prediction model based on the results and to internally validate the prediction of the model.The prediction of the model was internally verified.Results:The serum levels of progesterone(P)and prolactin(PRL)in the PTC group were higher than those in the control group,and the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).The ROC(Receiver Operating Characteristic)results show that the area under the curve(AUC)for predicting thyroid cancer in postmenopausal women using E2,T,P,and PRL were 0.531,0.518,0.657,and 0.771,with the optimal cutoff values of 18.775 pmol/L,0.455 nmol/L,0.405 nmol/L,and 251.950 mIU/L respectively.A nomogram model was established based on clinical pathological characteristics and other risk factors,and the model validation showed that the nomogram model had good predictive accuracy.Conclusions:P and PRL in sex hormones are closely related to menopausal women with PTC,and the column chart model based on PRL and related clinical.

关 键 词：性激素 甲状腺乳头状癌 列线图 

分 类 号：R736.1[医药卫生—肿瘤] R730.3[医药卫生—临床医学]