基于年龄-时期-队列模型的中国前列腺癌发病死亡趋势分析  

Analysis of incidence and mortality trends of prostate cancer in China based on age-period-cohort model

作　　者：林豪胜 杨增士 叶宁 LIN Haosheng;YANG Zengshi;YE Ning(Department of Urology,Xiaolan Hospital,Southern Medical University,Zhongshan,Guangdong,528415,China)

机构地区：[1]南方医科大学附属小榄医院泌尿外科,广东中山528415

出　　处：《临床泌尿外科杂志》2024年第8期708-712,共5页Journal of Clinical Urology

摘　　要：目的:分析1990—2019年中国前列腺癌(prostate cancer,PCa)的发病及死亡现状和长期变化趋势。方法:数据来自2019年全球疾病负担数据库。采用Joinpoint软件和年龄-时期-队列模型在线分析工具,对1990—2019年中国PCa的数据进行分析。结果:1990—2019年,中国PCa发病率由4.33/10万逐年增长至21.17/10万;死亡率由3.34/10万逐年增长至7.50/10万;伤残调整寿命年(disability adjusted life year,DALY)率由66.06/10万逐年增长至138.32/10万。Joinpoint结果显示,标化发病率有升高趋势,标化死亡率有降低趋势。年龄-时期-队列模型结果显示,发病与死亡风险随年龄的增加而增高,发病风险随时期的增加而升高,死亡风险随时期的增加而降低,发病风险随队列的增加而升高,死亡风险随队列的升高而降低。结论:1990—2019年中国PCa的发病率、死亡率呈上升趋势,发病和死亡风险随年龄升高而升高,并且80岁以上人群发病风险最高,提示80岁以上老年人群应作为PCa防治工作的重点人群。Objective To analyze the current status and long-term trend of prostate cancer incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2019.Methods Data were collected from 2019 global burden of disease data.Joinpoint software analysis and age-period-cohort model online analysis tools were used to analyze the data of prostate cancer in China from 1990 to 2019.Results From 1990 to 2019,the crude incidence of prostate cancer in China increased from 4.33 per 100,000 to 21.17 per 100,000.China's crude death rate has increased from 3.34 per 100,000 to 7.50 per 100,000.The crude disability adjusted life year(DALY)rate of prostate cancer in China has increased from 66.06/100,000 to 138.32/100,000.The Joinpoint results showed that standardized incidence tended to increase and standardized mortality tended to decrease.The results from the Age-Period-Cohort model show that the risk of incidence and mortality increases with age.The risk of incidence rises with the passage of time,while the risk of mortality decreases over time.The risk of incidence increases with successive cohorts,whereas the risk of mortality increases with later cohorts.Conclusion From 1990 to 2019,the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in China showed an increasing trend,and the risk of morbidity and mortality increased with age.The risk of morbidity was highest in people over 85 years old,suggesting that the elderly over 85 years old should be the focus of prostate cancer prevention and treatment.

关 键 词：前列腺癌 发病率 死亡率 年龄-时期-队列模型 疾病负担 

分 类 号：R737.25[医药卫生—肿瘤]