2014—2022年湖南省长沙市育龄妇女恶性肿瘤死亡率变化趋势分析  

Trends of Cancer Mortality in Women of Childbearing Age in Changsha City of Hunan Province from 2014 to 2022

作　　者：黄渊秀[1] 胡劲松[1] 黄霜[1] 吴梦怡 罗飞 HUANG Yuanxiu;HU Jingsong;HUANG Shuang;WU Mengyi;LUO Fei(Changsha Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Changsha 410004,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙市疾病预防控制中心,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《中国肿瘤》2024年第9期716-723,共8页China Cancer

摘　　要：[目的]分析2014—2022年长沙市育龄妇女恶性肿瘤死亡率情况及其变化趋势。[方法]从“人口死亡信息登记管理系统”导出2014—2022年长沙市户籍15~49岁育龄妇女死亡个案,计算其粗死亡率和标化死亡率,标化率以2010年全国第六次普查人口为标准。采用Joinpoint 4.9软件分析死亡率的变化趋势,利用年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)来描述死亡率的变化趋势,并用线性回归模型估计的年度变化贡献率分析各个癌种对恶性肿瘤死亡率趋势变化的贡献大小。[结果]2014—2022年长沙市育龄妇女恶性肿瘤粗死亡率为19.55/10万,标化死亡率为18.75/10万,主要死亡原因为乳腺癌、肺癌、宫颈癌、肝癌、结直肠癌。恶性肿瘤标化死亡率在全市、城区、农村和30~39岁年龄组均呈下降趋势,APC(95%CI)分别为-2.97%(-4.89%~-1.02%)、-3.39%(-5.52%~-1.21%)、-2.97%(-4.89%~-1.01%)和-7.23%(-11.39%~-2.88%)。其中,肝癌、肺癌、宫颈癌、其他癌的下降趋势有统计学意义(P均<0.05)。乳腺癌死亡率的下降趋势虽没有统计学意义,但与肝癌、肺癌和宫颈癌一起对死亡率下降趋势累计贡献率达53.31%。[结论]2014—2022年长沙市育龄妇女恶性肿瘤死亡率总体呈下降趋势。应针对重点癌种,加强防治力度,控制危险因素,降低其死亡率。[Purpose]To analyze the trends of cancer mortality rate in women of childbearing age in Changsha City from 2014 to 2022.[Methods]The death cases of women aged 15~49 years old in Changsha City from 2014 to 2022 were derived from the Population Death Information Registration and Management System,and the standard population was based on the sixth national census data in 2010.The Joinpoint 4.9 software was used to calculate annual percentage change(APC)of mortality rate,and the contribution of each cancer to the trends of mortality was estimated by the linear regression model.[Results]From 2014 to 2022,the crude mortality rate of cancer in women of childbearing age was 19.55/105 and the age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)was 18.75/105.The main causes of cancer death were breast cancer,lung cancer,cervical cancer,liver cancer and colorectal cancer.The APC of ASMR of cancer showed decreasing trends in the whole city,urban areas,rural areas and in people aged 30~39 years old(APC=-2.97%,95%CI:-4.89%~-1.02%;APC=-3.39%,95%CI:-5.52%~-1.21%;APC=-2.97%,95%CI:-4.89%~-1.01%;APC=-7.23%,95%CI:-11.39%~-2.88%,respectively).The trends of mortality rate of liver cancer,lung cancer,cervical cancer and other cancers showed significantly decreasing trends(all P<0.05).The decreasing trend of breast cancer mortality was not statistically significant,but the cumulative contribution of breast cancer along with liver cancer,lung cancer and cervical cancer accounted for 53.31%of overall decreasing trends.[Conclusion]The cancer mortality rate in women of childbearing age in Changsha City shows an overall decreasing trend from 2014 to 2022.It is necessary to strengthen prevention and treatment of key cancer types,control risk factors,and reduce mortality rates.

关 键 词：恶性肿瘤 育龄妇女 死亡率 变化趋势 湖南 

分 类 号：R73-31[医药卫生—肿瘤]