基于TE-SIS模型的突发事件网民情感博弈演化研究  

Research on the Evolution of Netizens’Emotional Game in Emergencies Based on TE-SIS Model

作　　者：胡青岳 仲兆满 吴加莹 管燕 张丽玲 HU Qingyue;ZHONG Zhaoman;WU Jiaying;GUAN Yan;ZHANG Liling(School of Computer Engineering,Jiangsu Ocean University,Lianyungang 222005,China;Jiangsu Institute of Marine Resources Development,Lianyungang 222005,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏海洋大学计算机工程学院,江苏连云港222005 [2]江苏省海洋资源开发研究院,江苏连云港222005

出　　处：《江苏海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第3期77-85,共9页Journal of Jiangsu Ocean University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72174079);江苏省“青蓝工程”大数据优秀教学团队项目(2022-29);江苏海洋大学研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX22-3397)。

摘　　要：社交网络的发展促进了对于突发事件网民的情感演化过程的研究,建立突发事件网民情感演化模型对于维持社会和谐稳定具有重要的意义。TE-SIS(two-dimensional emotional susceptible infectious susceptible)模型结合二维情感空间以及网民情感博弈进行演化分析。TE-SIS模型不仅考虑了网民对于突发事件持续关注的状态以及情绪反复感染的情况,同时突破传统传染病模型对于群体数量的限制,使网民个体间动态交互迭代出群体的情感演化方向,TE-SIS模型还能够仿真出真实突发事件发生后不同时期的情感演化情况。实验表明,提出的TE-SIS模型中情感输入率以及情感消解率极大影响对应情感状态的演化。同时根据模型中不同情感消解率所对应管控措施的强度来分析不同管控对于网民情感演化的影响。研究结果能够为分析突发事件网民情感演化机理提供新的思路和方法,对舆情的引导以及事件中网民情感调控具有重要意义。The development of social networks promotes the study of the emotional evolution process of netizens in emergencies,and the establishment of the netizens’emotional evolution model of in emergencies is of great significance for maintaining social harmony and stability.TE-SIS(two-dimensional emotional susceptible infectious susceptible)model combines the two-dimensional emotional space and the emotional game of netizens for evolutionary analysis.The TE-SIS model not only considers the state of netizens’persistent concern about the emergency and the repeated infection of netizens’emotion,but also breaks through the limitation of the traditional infectious disease model on the number of groups,so that the dynamic interactions among netizens iterates the direction of the group’s emotional evolution.The TE-SIS model is also able to simulate the evolution of emotions at different times after the occurrence of the real emergency.Experiments show that the emotional input rate and the emotional dissipation rate in the TE-SIS model proposed in this paper greatly affect the evolution of the corresponding emotional states.And the impact of different intensity of control measures on the evolution of netizens’emotions is also analyzed according to the intensity of control measures corresponding to different emotional dissipation rates in the model.The results of the study can provide new ideas and methods for analyzing the mechanism of netizens’emotional evolution during emergencies,which is of great significance for guiding public opinion and regulating netizens’emotion during events.

关 键 词：突发事件 传染病模型 动态情绪感染 情感演化 

分 类 号：TP393[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] G250[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]