基于新冠病毒的传播链分析及防控研究  

Research on Transmission Chain Analysis and Prevention and Control Based on COVID-19

作　　者：周燕珠 蔡志杰[2,3,4] ZHOU Yanzhu;CAI Zhijie(Guangdong TipDM Intelligent Technology Co.,Ltd,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510000,China;School of Mathematical Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;Shanghai Key Laboratory of Contemporary Applied Mathematics,Shanghai 200433,China;Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mathematical Models and Methods of Ministry of Education,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]广东泰迪智能科技股份有限公司,广东广州510000 [2]复旦大学数学科学学院,上海200433 [3]上海市现代应用数学重点实验室,上海200433 [4]非线性数学模型与方法教育部重点实验室,上海200433

出　　处：《数学建模及其应用》2024年第3期58-66,共9页Mathematical Modeling and Its Applications

摘　　要：控制疫情发展是疫情防控的重要课题,本文基于某市新冠疫情防疫系统的数据多层次深入地探讨了新冠疫情防控策略.首先构建了新冠病毒传播链的分析框架,分析病毒的传播模式,追踪阳性人员的密接者和次密接者,深入分析聚集性疫情特性,从而达到精准防控的目的;其次,建立病毒传播指数来评估疫苗接种针次对病毒传播的影响,结果表明随着疫苗接种针次的增加,传播指数随之下降,验证了疫苗的有效性;最后,针对场所差异化管控,以人流量为切入点,通过两种聚类算法来识别重点管控的场所类型,结果表明交通、住宅等场所类型需要重点管控,娱乐、文化、购物等场所类型需要次重点管控.Controlling the development of the epidemic is an important issue of epidemic prevention and control.Based on the data of the COVID-19 prevention system in a city,this paper deeply discusses the COVID-19 prevention and control strategies at multiple levels.First,an analytical framework of the COVID-19 transmission chain is constructed,which analyzes the transmission mode of the virus,tracks the informants and sub informants of positive people,and deeply analyzes the characteristics of the clustered epidemic,so as to achieve the goal of precise prevention and control.Second,a virus transmission index is established to assess the impact of vaccination shots on virus transmission.The results show that the transmission index decreases with the increase of vaccination shots,which verifies the effectiveness of the vaccine.Finally,for differentiated management and controlling of place,with the flow of people as the entry point,two clustering algorithms are used to identify the key control.The results show that the traffic,residential and other types of places need to be mainly controlled.Entertainment,culture shopping and other venue types require secondary focus control.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒 传播链 传播指数 场所管控 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]