超大城市基于活动的交通需求模型建设——上海的探索与实践  

Activity-Based Travel Demand Modeling for Megacities:Exploration and Practice in Shanghai

作　　者：张天然 王波 宋少飞 朱春节 ZHANG Tianran;WANG Bo;SONG Shaofei;ZHU Chunjie(Shanghai Urban Planning&Design Research Institute,Shanghai 200040,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市城市规划设计研究院,上海200040

出　　处：《城市交通》2024年第4期13-23,12,共12页Urban Transport of China

基　　金：上海市城市规划设计研究院重点项目“上海市新一轮交通模型建设”(2020160-0)。

摘　　要：基于活动的交通需求模型从人的活动需求本源出发,能很好地刻画活动与出行之间的关系,进而建立城市规划或交通规划方案与居民生活之间的关联。回顾国际上从四阶段交通需求模型到基于活动的模型发展,总结北美基于活动的模型软件的模型特点、开发程序和实践经验。根据超大城市的模型应用需求、数据条件、运算速度和开发效率情况,设计了适用于上海市的基于活动的模型框架结构。基于活动的模型包括重构人口个体数据的人口仿真(合成)模型、强制性活动的中长期模型,以及包含出行链和中间停留点的短期模型等模块。重点介绍了模型参数标定的总体情况,并利用居民出行调查、百度位置服务、手机信令等多源数据对模型结果进行多维度校核验证,结果表明模型准确度高、运行速度快。最后指出,基于活动的模型优势显著,但其他城市应用时需权衡开发成本和应用的实际效果,建议以四阶段模型为基础开展基于活动的模型开发。Activity-based travel demand models start from the fundamental activity demand of individuals,effectively reflect the relationship between activities and travel,and then establish the correlation between urban or transportation planning scheme and residents'lives.Based on reviewing the development from four-step travel demand models to activity-based models internationally,this paper summarizes the model characteristics,development procedures and practical experiences of activity-based modeling software in North America.A framework structure of activity-based models applicable to Shanghai is designed based on the model application requirements,data conditions,computational and development efficiency of megacities.The activity-based model includes modules such as a population synthesis model for reconstructing individual population data,a medium-and long-term model for mandatory activities,and a shortterm model incorporating trip chains and intermediate stops.The paper focuses on the general situation of model parameter calibration,as well as the multi-dimensional calibration and validation of the model results using multi-source data such as household travel surveys,Baidu location-based services,and cell phone signaling data,which indicate high accuracy and efficiency of the model.The activity-based model has significant advantages,however,the paper suggests the necessity of considering development cost against practical effectiveness and using the four-step model as the basis for activity-based model development for application in other cities.

关 键 词：基于活动的模型 出行链 目的地选择模型 日活动模式 强制性活动 非强制性活动 中间停留点模型 

分 类 号：U491.12[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]