中国水产品贸易生态足迹时空演变与动态预测  

Spatial-temporal evolution and dynamic prediction of the ecological footprint of aquatic product trade in China

作　　者：付秀梅[1] 齐俏俏 林春宇 董嵩 李晓楠 王萍 吴紫薇 刘莹[1] FU Xiumei;QI Qiaoqiao;LIN Chunyu;DONG Song;LI Xiaonan;WANG Ping;WU Ziwei;LIU Ying(School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Ocean College,Zhejiang University,Zhoushan 316021,China;Zhoushan Ocean Research Center,Zhejiang University,Zhoushan 316021,China;Qingdao Military-Civilian Integration Development Group,Qingdao 266500,China;Business School,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266061,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,青岛266100 [2]浙江大学海洋学院,舟山316021 [3]浙江大学舟山海洋研究中心,舟山316021 [4]青岛军民融合发展集团,青岛266500 [5]青岛大学商学院,青岛266061

出　　处：《生态学报》2024年第18期8047-8061,共15页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42076221)。

摘　　要：国际贸易下的生态输入与输出在一定程度上会重新配置国家及地区之间的生态环境资源。中国在大力发展水产品贸易的同时,也面临着由此带来的生态资源损失等问题。基于生态足迹模型测算2001—2020年中国与35个主要国家和地区的水产品贸易生态足迹和生态净值进行现状评价,通过ArcGIS揭示生态净值的时空演变特征,并运用ARIMA模型预测其未来变化趋势。研究结果表明:(1)中国水产品进口与出口生态足迹值较大,不同种类水产品贸易生态足迹值差距较大。(2)中国水产品贸易生态净值虽然近期呈现显著上升趋势,但整体生态净值态势不稳定,而且不同种类水产品贸易生态净值差别较大。(3)中国水产品贸易生态净值在时间维度上整体变化程度不高,但在空间维度上存在明显的异质性问题,并且集中程度变化较为明显。(4)中国水产品出口贸易生态足迹和进口贸易生态足迹主要国家分布基本保持稳定,但是少数主要国家变化明显,水产品出口贸易和进口贸易集中度均较高。(5)预测2021—2025年中国水产品出口和进口生态足迹处于明显不平衡状态,2025年中国水产品贸易生态净值空间分布依然存在明显的异质性问题。因此,本研究从优化水产品贸易结构、畅通产业双循环路径、提升海洋科技创新能力、深化多边贸易合作体制等不同维度提出优化中国水产品贸易生态足迹的相关对策建议,为中国水产品贸易可持续发展提供现实依据。The ecological and environmental resources can be reconfigured between countries and regions to a certain extent by ecological inputs and outputs of international trade.While China vigorously develops aquatic products trade,it also faces problems such as the loss of ecological resources.Based on the ecological footprint model,this paper measured the ecological footprint and ecological net value of China′s aquatic product trade with 35 major countries and regions from 2001 to 2020.The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the ecological net value were revealed through ArcGIS,and the future trend of the changes was predicted by using the ARIMA model.The results showed that:(1)The ecological footprint values of China′s aquatic products imports and exports were large,with the significant gap among the ecological footprint values in different types of aquatic product trade.(2)The overall net ecological value trend was unstable although the net ecological net value of China′s aquatic product trade had shown a significant upward trend recently.At the meantime,there were large differences in the ecological net value of different types of aquatic product trade.(3)In the temporal dimension,the ecological net value of China′s aquatic product trade did not have a high degree of overall change.However,there were obvious problems of heterogeneity,and the degree of concentration changed more obviously in the spatial dimension.(4)The distribution of major countries in the ecological footprint of China′s aquatic products export trade and the ecological footprint of China′s aquatic products import trade had basically remained stable,but there had been obvious changes in a few major countries.And the concentration of both aquatic products export trade and import trade was relatively high.(5)It was predicted that the ecological footprint of China′s aquatic products exports and imports would be in a state of obvious disequilibrium from 2021 to 2025,and the spatial distribution of the ecological net value of

关 键 词：生态足迹 水产品贸易 ARIMA模型 时空演变 动态预测 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X322