末次间冰期中国季风降水的模拟分析  

MODELLING ANALYSES ON THE MONSOON PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER CHINA DURING THE LAST INTERGLACIAL

作　　者：田芝平[1] 史嘉文 姜大膀[1,2] TIAN Zhiping;SHI Jiawen;JIANG Dabang(Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [2]中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院,北京100049

出　　处：《第四纪研究》2024年第5期1388-1398,共11页Quaternary Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:41931181和42075048)资助。

摘　　要：本研究使用国际古气候模拟比较计划最新第4阶段(PMIP4)中的15个全球耦合模式试验数据,聚焦末次间冰期(距今约127 ka)中国季风降水及其强度相对于工业革命前期的变化,并分析了相关的动力学机制。结果表明,所有模式均能合理再现观测的中国年和冬、夏季降水气候态的大尺度分布特征;相对于工业革命前期,伴随着季风区范围向西北扩张,多模式集合平均模拟的末次间冰期中国季风降水增加37%、季风降水强度增强6%,且模式间一致性较好;上述变化主要是因为该时期轨道强迫下经向温度梯度减小和纬向、经向海陆热力对比加大所导致的东亚西风急流减弱北移、夏季风环流加强以及相应的水汽输送发生变化。多模式模拟的末次间冰期中国季风降水变化与季风区内大部分降水重建记录定性一致。Monsoon precipitation is an important component of the global water cycle.Previous studies have mainly focused on contemporary and future monsoon precipitation,with relatively limited work on monsoon precipitation changes during past warm periods,especially at the regional scale from a modelling perspective.Using all available simulation data from fifteen global coupled climate models participating in the latest phase 4 of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project(PMIP4),the present study centrally investigates changes in monsoon precipitation and its intensity over China during the Last Interglacial(LIG:approximately 127 ka before present)relative to the preindustrial period,and analyses the related dynamic mechanisms.Results show that all models can reasonably reproduce the large-scale characteristics of the observed annual,winter,and summer precipitation climatology over China.Compared to the preindustrial period,with an overall northwestward expansion of the monsoon region,the multimodel ensemble mean shows an increase of 37%in the monsoon precipitation and a strengthening of 6%in the monsoon precipitation intensity over China during the LIG,with a qualitative agreement among individual models.In response to the LIG orbital forcing,the summer surface warming is stronger over middle latitudes than that over lower latitudes of China,leading to a decrease in the meridional temperature gradient and thus the weakening and poleward shift of the East Asian westerly jet.The weakened westerlies suppress the water vapor transport from the upstream and reduce the monsoon precipitation in the upper reaches of the Yellow River,while the northward movement of the westerly jet increases the monsoon precipitation in North China but suppresses the precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River.On the other hand,the LIG summer surface warming is overall stronger in the East Asian continent than that in the adjacent oceans of the western North Pacific and the South China Sea,which causes increases in both zona

关 键 词：末次间冰期 中国 季风降水 模拟 PMIP4试验 

分 类 号：P534.632[天文地球—第四纪地质学] P467[天文地球—古生物学与地层学]