城市暴雨内涝灾害的链式成灾路径分析—基于DEMATEL-AISM-MICMAC模型  

Analysis of Chain Disaster Path of Urban Rainstorm Waterlogging Disaster—Based on the DEMATEL-AISM-MICMAC Model

作　　者：闫绪娴[1] 王俊丽 孔锋 米俊 刘杨 YAN Xuxian;WANG Junli;KONG Feng;MI Jun;LIU Yang(School of Management Science and Engineering,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan030006,China;College of Humanities and Development Studies,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学管理科学与工程学院,山西太原030006 [2]中国农业大学人文与发展学院,北京100083

出　　处：《灾害学》2024年第4期1-7,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家社科学基金一般项目“我国城市暴雨内涝灾害形成机理、韧性评估与防治对策研究”(20BGL260)。

摘　　要：城市暴雨内涝本质上属于灾害系统问题,受致灾因子和孕灾环境的影响,由暴雨引发的城市内涝既符合灾害系统研究问题,其成灾机理又遵循链式传导机制。该文从灾害系统视角展开研究,通过构建DEMATELAISM-MICMAC模型,来探究城市暴雨内涝灾害的链式成灾路径。DEMATEL-AISM-MICMAC模型具有剖析影响因素层级关系的优势,分析结果可以明确暴雨内涝成灾过程中的因素间的传导关系,由此总结出城市暴雨内涝的4条链式路径(城市建设因素主导型传导路径、气候与城市功能因素共同驱动型传导路径、城市基础设施因素主导型传导路径、应急管理主导型传导路径);MICMAC将影响因素分为驱动因素群、依赖因素群和自治因素群,并验证了城市化进程对城市内涝的驱动作用较强。最后从城市基础设施、气候变化与韧性城市、灾害预警三个方面提出了对策建议。Urban rainstorm waterlogging is essentially a disaster system problem.Affected by disaster causing factors and disaster pregnant environment,urban waterlogging caused by rainstorm not only conforms to the disaster system research problem,but also follows the chain transmission mechanism.Therefore research from the perspective of disaster system is carried out,and the chain disaster path of urban rainstorm and waterlogging disaster is explored by constructing the DEMATEL-AISM-MICMAC model.DEMATEL-AISM-MICMAC model has the advantage of analyzing the hierarchical relationship of influencing factors.The analysis results can clarify the transmission relationship between the factors in the process of rainstorm waterlogging,and thus summarize four chain paths of urban rainstorm waterlogging(urban construction factor dominated transmission path,climate and urban function factor co driven transmission path,urban infrastructure factor dominated transmission path,emergency management dominated transmission path);MICMAC divides the influencing factors into driving factor group,dependent factor group,and autonomous factor group,and verifies that the urbanization process has a strong driving effect on urban waterlogging.Finally,countermeasures and suggestions are proposed from three aspects as urban infrastructure,

关 键 词：城市暴雨内涝 灾害系统 链式成灾路径 DEMATEL-AISM-MICMAC模型 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5