云南省雷电流幅值时空变化特征及累积概率分布  

The Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics and Cumulative Probability Distribution of Lightning Current Amplitude in Yunnan Province

作　　者：刘平英 吴永斌 姚雯 李思 周璐瑶 LIU Pingying;WU Yongbin;YAO Wen;LI Si;ZHOU Luyao(Yunnan Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center,Kunming 650034,China;Key Laboratory of Lightning,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省气象灾害防御技术中心,云南昆明650034 [2]中国气象局雷电重点开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《灾害学》2024年第4期24-32,共9页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：中国气象局雷电重点开放实验室开放课题“山区复杂地形下输电线路雷击敏感性及临近预警技术研究”(2023KELLB009);云南省气象局青年科技创新团队“雷电灾害监测预警技术应用研究”(2022QN03)。

摘　　要：该文基于2017—2022年云南省VLF/LF闪电定位系统监测资料,分析雷电流幅值时空变化规律和累积概率分布特征。结果表明:全省正回击电流幅值空间分布差异较负回击更加显著,高值区分布在滇西北、滇东南的红河州、滇西南的普洱市和西双版纳州。在回击密度较高的滇中及以东地区,雷电流幅值却相对较小。全省正、负回击的平均电流幅值分别为42.6 kA、27.3 kA,正回击电流幅值跨度更广,负回击电流幅值更集中。正回击中出现大幅值电流的概率较高,正、负回击中电流幅值大于60 kA的累积概率分别为27.6%和4.4%。具有强电流幅值的地闪活动主要出现在8—10月的夜间及上午,弱雷电流幅值主要发生在春季。利用IEEE推荐公式和Levenberg-Marquardt算法,通过迭代拟合得到适用于云南省不同地区的雷电流幅值累积概率公式,拟合值与实测值的相对误差较小,可为雷电灾害防御设计及输电线路耐雷评估分析等提供技术支持和参考。Based on the data of VLF/LF lightning location system in Yunnan Province from 2017 to 2022,the spatiotemporal variation law and cumulative probability distribution characteristics of lightning current amplitude are analyzed.The results show that the spatial distribution difference of positive lightning stroke current amplitudes is more significant than that of negative lightning stroke.The high-value areas are distributed in northwest Yunnan,Honghe in southeast Yunnan,Pu′er and Xishuangbanna in southwest Yunnan.In the central and eastern regions of Yunnan with high lightning return stroke density,but the amplitude of lightning current is relatively small.The average current amplitudes of positive and negative return stroke in the province are 42.6 kA and 27.3 kA.The amplitude range of positive return stroke current is wide,while the amplitude distribution of negative return stroke current is concentrated.The probability of large amplitude current occurring in positive return stroke is higher than that in negative return stroke,and the cumulative probability of current amplitude greater than 60 kA in positive and negative return stroke is 27.6%and 4.4%.Cloud to Ground flash activity with strong current amplitude mainly occurs at night and in the morning from August to October,while weaker lightning current amplitude occurs in spring.Based on the IEEE recommended formula and combined with the Levenberg Marquardt algorithm,a cumulative probability formula for lightning current amplitude applicable to different regions of Yunnan Province is obtained through iterative fitting.The relative error between the fitted value and the measured value is small.This study can provide technical basis and reference for lightning disaster prevention design and transmission line lightning resistance evaluation.

关 键 词：雷电流幅值 累积概率 最小二乘法 中值电流 非线性拟合 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P427.321