澜湄次区域减灾合作发展的随机演化博弈模型  

The Random Evolutionary Game Model of Disaster Reduction Cooperation Development in the Lancang-Mekong Sub-region

作　　者：何树红[1] 黄振雄 HE Shuhong;HUANG Zhenxiong(School of Economics,Yunnan University,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学经济学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《灾害学》2024年第4期76-80,147,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“西南地区泥石流灾害损失测度及救灾管理研究”(71661030)。

摘　　要：长期以来,澜沧江—湄公河次区域一直深受灾害风险的威胁,给次区域的社会经济发展造成了很大阻碍,开展减灾合作是提升减灾能力的有效方式。该文为探析次区域内各国减灾合作机制和影响减灾合作关系的关键因素,建立随机演化博弈模型,并引入灾害抗逆力与国际关系来探讨各国博弈策略动态演化过程及影响因素。研究结果表明:一国灾害抗逆力的提升无论是在随机因素影响强或弱的条件下,均不确定其能否促进合作发展局面的形成,国际关系的亲近则对于合作发展局面有着正向的促进作用,在当前时代背景下,各国对减灾合作的积极性在不断提高,同时,我国当前的决策行为能够对合作局面产生促进作用。基于澜湄次区域内国家间合作演化规律的探讨,可进一步为各国提升防灾减灾救灾能力与优化减灾合作机制提供借鉴,助力经济社会发展。Over an extended period,the Lancang-Mekong sub-region has faced persistent threats from disaster risks,posing substantial impediments to the socio-economic progress of the region.Establishing cooperative efforts in disaster reduction emerges is a potent strategy to fortify resilience against such calamities.A stochastic evolutionary game model is employed to scrutinize the mechanisms of disaster reduction cooperation among subregional countries and discern pivotal factors influencing cooperative relationships.The model incorporates considerations of disaster resilience and international relations to elucidate the dynamic evolution of game strategies among countries in the Lancang-Mekong sub-region and their influencing factors.The findings reveal that the enhancement of a country′s disaster resilience,regardless of the impact of random factors,does not inherently dictate its ability to foster a cooperative development scenario.Notably,the proximity of international relations exhibits a positive influence on the cultivation of cooperative situations.In the contemporary era,there is a discernible upswing in countries′enthusiasm for disaster reduction cooperation.Simultaneously,the decision-making behavior of our country presently plays a consequential role in fostering cooperative situations.By dissecting the cooperation evolution patterns within the Lancang-Mekong sub-region,valuable insights is provided for nations to bolster their disaster prevention,reduction,and relief capabilities.Furthermore,a foundation is offered to optimize disaster reduction cooperation mechanisms,thereby contributing meaningfully to both economic and social development.

关 键 词：澜湄次区域 减灾合作 灾害抗逆力 随机演化博弈模型 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5