基于变权理论的河北省洪涝灾害风险评估研究  

Flood Disaster Risk Assessment in Hebei Province Based on Variable Weight Theory

作　　者：唐彦东 牛紫霄 于汐 林裕梅 李如 TANG Yandong;NIU Zixiao;YU Xi;LIN Yumei;LI Ru(Institute of Disaster Prevention,School of Emergency Management,Sanhe 065201,China;Hebei Key Laboratory of Resource and Environment Disaster Mechanism and Risk Monitoring,Sanhe 065201,China)

机构地区：[1]防灾科技学院应急管理学院,河北三河065201 [2]河北省资源环境灾变机理及风险监控重点实验室,河北三河065201

出　　处：《灾害学》2024年第4期138-147,共10页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：河北省教育厅研究生教育教学改革研究项目“基于学科交叉融合的应急技术与管理专业硕士培养目标、知识体系和教学实践研究”(YJG2023120);中央高校基本科研业务费项目“基于生命统计价值的自然灾害风险防治评估模型与实证研究”(2310271037);中国地震局重大政策理论与实践问题研究课题“贯彻习近平总书记关于提高自然灾害防治能力重要论述的深化研究”(CEAZY2019JZ01);河北省自然科学基金青年项目“气候变化对河北省玉米增产潜力的影响与应对措施研究”(D2022512010)。

摘　　要：灾害风险评估是减轻灾害损失的重要手段。遵循风险系统理论,结合河北省灾害特征、经济发展等因素,选取致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力四个维度指标,采用熵权法确定指标常权权重,构建河北省洪涝灾害风险评估指标体系。利用气象水文、地形地貌及社会经济等数据,构建符合洪涝灾害风险评估特征的状态变权向量,建立河北省洪涝灾害风险变权评估模型,对河北省县域单元进行精细化风险评估。结果表明,河北省洪涝灾害风险主要呈东部沿海县域高、南部平原县域中等、北部山区县域低的趋势。Disaster risk assessment is an important means to reduce disaster loss.Following the risk system theory and combining the disaster characteristics and economic development of Hebei Province,four dimension indicators are selected as disaster causing factor risk,disaster-induced environmental sensitivity,disaster-bearing body vulnerability and disaster prevention and reduction ability.By using entropy weight method to determine the constant weight of indicators,flood disaster risk assessment index system of Hebei Province is established.Based on meteorological and hydrological data,landform and geomorphology data,social and economic data,the state variable weight vector conforming to the characteristics of flood disaster risk assessment is constructed,and the flood disaster risk assessment model of Hebei Province is established to carry out refined risk assessment for county units in Hebei Province.The results show that the flood disaster in Hebei Province was high in the eastern coastal counties,medium in the southern plain and low in the northern mountainous counties.

关 键 词：风险评估 洪涝灾害 变权 熵值法 县域单元 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X915.5