基于集对分析和信息扩散的区域农业旱灾脆弱性评价与诊断  

Evaluation and Diagnosis of Regional Agricultural Drought Vulnerability Based on Set Pair Analysis and Information Diffusion Theory

作　　者：韦亚龙 周玉良[1,2] 周平[1,2] 金菊良[1,2] 张宇亮[1,2] 李征 WEI Yalong;ZHOU Yuliang;ZHOU Ping;JIN Juliang;ZHANG Yuliang;LI Zheng(College of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Insti tute of Water Resource and Environmental System Engineering,College of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Anhui Provincial(Huaihe River Conservancy Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources)Water Conservancy Science Research Institute(Anhui Provincial Water Conservancy Engineer ing Quality Inspection Center Station),Hefei 230088,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所,安徽合肥230009 [3]安徽省(水利部淮河水利委员会)水利科学研究院(安徽省手利工程同量检测中心站),安徽合肥230088

出　　处：《灾害学》2024年第4期179-184,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“多特征变量致灾因子条件下旱灾风险定量评估与调控”(52379006);国家自然科学基金面上项目“季风影响区域干旱分区与旱灾动态风险定量评估”(42271084);国家自然科学基金项目“汉江流域水资源可持续利用及其风险调控”(U2240223);国家自然科学基金青年项目“基于地表水-地下水-作物耦合模型的区域农业干旱智能评估研究”(52209011);安徽省自然科学基金青年项目“耦合地表水、地下水和作物模型的农业干旱评估方法研究”(2208085QE179)。

摘　　要：农业旱灾脆弱性评价是农业旱灾风险防控的重要依据。该文基于信息扩散改进指标值隶属度计算方法,构建样本指标值与评价等级标准之间的联系数,采用级别特征值法确定区域旱灾脆弱性等级,完成利用减法集对势对子系统发展态势进行分析。同时,识别出农业旱灾脆弱性主要诱导因子,建立了基于集对分析和信息扩散的区域农业旱灾脆弱性评价与诊断模型。该文将模型应用于安徽省宿州市,结果表明:宿州市在2007—2017年的农业旱灾脆弱性处于中等程度,且总体呈下降趋势;农业旱灾暴露性改善明显,灾损敏感性降低且发展较平缓,防灾减灾能力有所提升,但仍处于较弱水平。宿州市农业旱灾脆弱性主要诱导因子依次为:监测预警能力、单位面积应急浇水能力、农业GDP占地区生产总值比例、节水灌溉率、复种指数、灌溉指数、单位面积现状供水能力、耕地率、农业人口比例、库容系数。Agricultural drought vulnerability assessment is an important basis for agricultural drought risk prevention and control.To explore the information carried by the index value of vulnerability assessment and accurately quantify the regional drought vulnerability,the calculation method of index value affiliation is improved based on the information diffusion theory,the correlation number between the sample index value and the evaluation grade standard is constructed,the grade eigenvalue method to determine the regional drought vulnerability level is used,and the development trend of the subsystem is analyzed by using the subtractive set.At the same time,the main inducing factors of agricultural drought vulnerability are identified,and a regional agricultural drought vulnerability assessment and diagnosis model based on set pair analysis and information diffusion is established,and the model is applied to Suzhou City,Anhui province.The results show that the evaluation level of agricultural drought vulnerability in Suzhou City from 2007 to 2017 varied around grade 2,with a medium degree in the year-round,the highest in 2007 and the lowest in 2017,with an overall downward trend.The exposure of agricultural drought has been significantly improved,the sensitivity of agricultural drought is reduced and the development is relatively slow,and the ability to prevent and mitigate agricultural drought has been improved,but it is still at a low level.The main inducing factors of agricultural drought vulnerability in Suzhou are:monitoring and early warning capacity,emergency watering capacity per unit area,ratio of agricultural GDP to regional gross domestic product,water-saving irrigation rate,replanting index,irrigation index,current water supply capacity per unit area,arable land rate,proportion of agricultural population,coefficient of reservoir storage capacity.The study can provide a basis for decision-making on regional agricultural drought risk prevention and control.

关 键 词：农业旱灾 脆弱性评价 集对分析 信息扩散 减法集对势 宿州市 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5[农业科学—植物保护] S423